摘要
针对台风风速、显著浪高和海流速度相关特性及其联合概率建模研究不足的问题,提出了一种基于阿基米德型嵌套Copula的台风-浪-流三维联合概率建模方法,并验证其在多元极值联合建模中的适用性与准确性。以我国珠三角海域2个典型近海场地为例,构建了SWAN+ADCIRC的物理耦合数值模型,获取了1988—2023年极值样本数据。结果表明,台风平均风速、显著浪高与海表面平均流速之间存在较强的相关性,台风平均风速与显著浪高的年最大值线性相关系数最大可达0.9605。台风-浪-流极值依赖结构及其最优嵌套Copula模型具有显著的场地特异性,且环境等值面形状随场地变化明显。环境等值面上不同变量最大值的伴随值具有敏感性,其中海表面平均流速的变异性最强,可达40%。
To address the problem of limited research on the correlation characterization and joint probability modelling of the typhoon wind speed,significant wave height,and current speed,a three⁃dimensional joint probability modelling method of typhoon wind,wave,and current based on the Archimedean nested Copula was proposed.The applicability and accuracy of this method was validated in multivariate joint modelling.Taking two typical offshore sites in the Pearl River Delta of China as case studies,a physics⁃based coupled nu⁃merical model based on SWAN(simulating waves nearshore)+ADCIRC(advanced circulation model)was es⁃tablished,and the extreme value samples from 1988 to 2023 were obtained.The results show that there are strong correlations among the typhoon mean wind speed,significant wave height,and sea surface depth⁃averaged current speed.The linear correlation coefficient between the typhoon mean wind speed and sig⁃nificant wave height is the largest,up to 0.9605.The dependence structure of the extreme of typhoon wind,wave,and current and its optimal nested Copula model exhibit significant site⁃specific characteristics,and the shape of the environmental contours varies notably with the site.The companion values of the dominate vari⁃ables on the environmental contours are sensitive,and the sea surface depth⁃averaged current speed shows the highest variability of up to 40%.
作者
戴靠山
程浩
张元博
盛超
DAI Kaoshan;CHENG Hao;ZHANG Yuanbo;SHENG Chao(College of Architecture and Environment,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China;National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Construction and Health Operation and Maintenance of Deep Earth Engineering,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China)
出处
《东南大学学报(自然科学版)》
北大核心
2026年第1期30-39,共10页
Journal of Southeast University:Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52278512,52508566)
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2025ZNSFSC1290)
四川省科技计划资助项目(2025ZNSFSC1290)
中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(YJ202470)
青岛市海洋产业关键技术攻关资助项目(2511gjgg50hy)。
关键词
台风-浪-流
SWAN+ADCIRC
嵌套Copula
联合概率建模
环境等值面
typhoon wind,wave,and current
SWAN(simulating waves nearshore)+ADCIRC(advanced circulation model)
nested Copula
joint probabilistic modelling
environmental contour
