摘要
时期生育水平的下降深受生育推迟的影响。平均生育年龄能够量化生育推迟的程度,但不同计算方法下平均生育年龄的变化在各个时期存在差异。计算去进度效应生育水平依赖于时期间平均生育年龄的变化,故利用单一平均生育年龄指标讨论进度效应的大小可能会错估时期生育水平变化中进度效应的影响。本研究采用队列视角下截断年龄一孩累积生育率观察生育推迟的进度和模式。2020年时中国女性的累积生育进度较快,但随年龄下降而快速走低,这表明年轻队列女性生育行为与早期出生队列存在明显差异。若中国年轻队列女性均依照早期出生队列在2020年时期一孩递进比进行生育,预期的一孩生育水平依然较高。这意味着中国年轻队列女性在2020年时的累积生育进度依然较快,其在未来生育推迟的空间非常大。本文基于全球多地区的生育推迟模式,利用不同生育推迟的拐点年龄和拐点年龄对应的累积一孩生育水平设置不同的推迟轨迹,讨论各类情景下中国未来时期生育水平的走势。结果显示在不考虑生育意愿变动的情况下,未来中国生育水平的走势会在相当程度上受到生育推迟轨迹模式的影响。生育推迟涵盖的年龄段越长、累积生育进度更慢,中国生育水平下降趋势的持续时间也会更长、拐点时期的生育率水平也将更低。若年轻队列生育推迟遵循35岁累积一孩生育水平下降至0.5的深度推迟情境下,中国生育水平整体的下降趋势可能会持续至2027年,总和生育率的最低值可能会下降至0.83且直到2030年后才有明显的补偿效应。中国在近些年出台了一系列旨在提升生育水平的政策,但时期生育水平的走势不仅受生育政策的影响,还取决于进度效应的作用。准确理解时期生育水平变化中进度效应的作用大小对于准确评估生育政策的效应具有重要意义。因为短期内生育水平持续降低并不意味着生育支持政策无效,有可能是政策的积极效果小于进度效应的消极影响,而长期生育率回弹也并非完全是积极生育政策的效应,其中有进度效应补偿生育的作用。
The decline in period fertility levels is profoundly influenced by fertility postponement.While the mean age of childbearing can quantify the extent of this postponement,the measured magnitude varies significantly depending on the calculation method employed.Since estimating tempo-adjusted fertility levels heavily relies on changes in the mean age of childbearing,relying solely on a single measure may lead to a misestimation of the tempo effect's role in fertility change.This study adopts a cohort perspective,utilizing the truncated age-specific cumulative first-birth fertility rate to observe the pace and pattern of fertility postponement.In 2020,Chinese women exhibited a relatively rapid cumulative fertility progression in their early reproductive years,which declined swiftly at older ages.This indicates a marked divergence in the childbearing behavior of younger cohorts compared to earlier cohorts.Had the younger cohorts followed the period first-birth progression ratios observed in 2020 for the older cohorts,their expected completed first-birth fertility would remain high.This suggests that the cumulative fertility progression for younger cohorts up to 2020 was still substantial,implying significant potential for further postponement in the future.Drawing on fertility postponement patterns observed across multiple global regions,this research establishes various postponement trajectories based on different inflection ages and corresponding levels of cumulative first-birth fertility at those ages.It then discusses the trajectory of China's future period fertility under these different scenarios.The results indicate that,assuming constant fertility intentions,the future path of China's fertility level will be considerably shaped by the specific pattern of the postponement trajectory.The longer the age range over which postponement occurs and the slower the cumulative fertility progression,the more prolonged the decline in fertility will be,and the lower the fertility rate will be at this time.Under a scenario of deep postponement where the cumulative first-birth fertility for younger cohorts drops to 0.5 by age 35,the overall downward trend in China's fertility level could persist until 2027,with the period total fertility rate potentially falling to a low of 0.83.A significant compensatory effect would unlikely emerge until after 2030.Although China has recently implemented a series of policies aimed at raising fertility levels,the trajectory of period fertility is influenced not only by policy but also by the tempo effect.Accurately understanding the magnitude of the tempo effect's role in period fertility changes is crucial for correctly assessing the impact of fertility policies.A sustained short-term decline in period fertility does not necessarily indicate that supportive policies are ineffective;it could mean that their positive impact is being outweighed by the negative influence of the tempo effect.Conversely,a long-term rebound in fertility rates may not be solely attributable to proactive policies,as it also includes the compensatory effect of past postponement.
作者
王强
李婷
WANG Qiang;LI Ting(School of Population and Health,Renmin University of China,Beijing,100872,China;Center for Population and Development Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing,100872,China)
出处
《人口学刊》
北大核心
2026年第1期84-98,共15页
Population Journal
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目:人口、家庭与可持续发展研究(24&ZD155)。
关键词
生育推迟
生育水平
进度效应
平均生育年龄
生育政策
Fertility Postponement
Fertility Level
Tempo Effect
Mean Age at Childbearing
Fertility Policy
