摘要
【目的】探明独花兰适生区分布,为独花兰野生资源保护提供参考。【方法】收集独花兰分布样点数据和气候因子数据,基于最大熵(MaxEnt v3.4.4)模型和地理信息系统软件(ArcGIS 10.8)筛选影响独花兰适生区分布的主要气候因子,对其适生区进行划分并计算当前时期(1970—2000年)和两种情境模式下(SSP126和SSP585)未来3个时期(2050s、2070s、2090s)独花兰的适生区面积,并预测其质心迁移情况。【结果】影响独花兰适生区分布的主要气候因子为最温暖季度的降水量、温度季节性、最冷月份的最低温度、平均昼夜温差、最冷季度的降水量、最湿季度的降水量和最潮湿地区的平均温度。当前时期,独花兰适生区总面积为2344356.93 km^(2),占国土总面积的24.42%,其中,高适生区为827705.50 km^(2),占国土总面积的8.62%,主要集中在四川、重庆、湖北、湖南、安徽、江苏、江西、河南、贵州等地区;中适生区、低适生区面积分别为810189.77、706461.66 km^(2),分别占国土总面积的8.44%、7.36%。未来时期,SSP126情境模式下,2050s、2070s和2090s独花兰适生区总面积分别为2499091.89、2499967.87和2549461.27 km^(2),分别占国土总面积的26.03%、26.04%和26.56%;SSP585情境模式下,2050s、2070s和2090s独花兰适生区总面积分别为2575705.90、2880322.37和3188653.02 km^(2),分别占国土总面积的26.84%、30.01%和33.22%。在SSP126情境模式下,独花兰质心从当前时期到2050s先向北移动124.76 km,在2070s又向南折返41.03 km,最后在2090s又向北移动27.43 km;在SSP585情境模式下,其质心从当前时期到2050s向北移动167.38 km,在2070s又向西北移动148.47 km,最后在2090s向北移动30.92 km。【结论】整体来看,未来独花兰总适生区面积扩大,其质心向北迁移。
【Objective】To identify the suitable habitat distribution of Changnienia amoena and provide a reference for the conservation of its wild resources.【Methods】Occurrence data and climatic factor data of C.amoena were collected.Based on the Maximum Entropy model(MaxEnt v3.4.4)and Geographic Information System software(ArcGIS 10.8),the major climatic factors affecting the suitable habitat distribution of C.amoena were identified,the suitable habitats were classified,and the area of suitable habitats in the current period(1970—2000)and three future periods(2050s,2070s,2090s)under two scenarios(SSP126 and SSP585)was calculated.In addition,the centroid migration of the suitable habitats was predicted.【Results】The major climatic factors affecting the suitable habitat distribution of C.amoena included precipitation of the warmest quarter,temperature seasonality,minimum temperature of the coldest month,mean diurnal temperature range,precipitation of the coldest quarter,precipitation of the wettest quarter,and mean temperature of the wettest region.In the current period,the total suitable habitat area of C.amoena was 2344356.93 km^(2),accounting for 24.42%of total national land area.Among these,highly suitable habitats covered 827705.50 km^(2)(8.62%of the total national land area),mainly distributed in Sichuan,Chongqing,Hubei,Hunan,Anhui,Jiangsu,Jiangxi,Henan,and Guizhou Provinces and other regions.Moderately suitable habitat area and lowly suitable habitat area were 810189.77 km^(2)and 706461.66 km^(2),accounting for 8.44%and 7.36%of the total national land area,respectively.In the future periods,under the SSP126 scenario,the total suitable habitat areas of C.amoena in the 2050s,2070s and 2090s were 2499091.89,2499967.87,and 2549461.27 km^(2),accounting for 26.03%,26.04%,and 26.56%of the total national land area,respectively.Under the SSP585 scenario,the total suitable habitat areas of C.amoena were 2575705.90,2880322.37,and 3188653.02 km^(2),accounting for 26.84%,30.01%and 33.22%of the total national land area,respectively.Under the SSP126 scenario,the centroid of C.amoena first shifted northward by 124.76 km from the current period to the 2050s,then southward by 41.03 km in the 2070s,and finally northward again by 27.43 km in the 2090s.Under the SSP585 scenario,the centroid of C.amoena first shifted northward by 167.38 km from the current period to the 2050s,northwestward by 148.47 km in the 2070s,and finally northward by 30.92 km in the 2090s.【Conclusion】Overall,the total suitable habitat area for C.amoena is expected to expand in the future,with its centroid migrating northward.
作者
陈杰
王仕宝
何志鹏
王艳龙
房宇
张慧
张艳艳
杨洁
李霞
崔艳丽
CHEN Jie;WANG Shibao;HE Zhipeng;WANG Yanlong;FANG Yu;ZHANG Hui;ZHANG Yanyan;YANG Jie;LI Xia;CUI Yanli(School of Pharmacy,Hanzhong Vocational and Technical College,Hanzhong 723000,China;Institute of Pharmaceutical(Edible)Botany,Qinba Mountains,Hanzhong Vocational and Technical College,Hanzhong 723000,China;School of Pharmacy,Shaanxi Institute of International Trade&Commerce,Xi′an 712046,China;College of Agriculture,Forestry Technology and Bioengineering,Hanzhong Vocational and Technical College,Hanzhong 723000,China;Department of Basic Courses Teaching,Hanzhong Vocational and Technical College,Hanzhong 723000,China)
出处
《北方农业学报》
2025年第6期66-76,共11页
Journal of Northern Agriculture
基金
2023年汉中职业技术学院科研课题(2023YJN07)
2024年陕西省科技厅重点研发项目(2024NC-XCZX-44)
2017年中医药公共卫生服务补助专项项目(财社[2017]66号)
2023年青年科研创新团队(汉职院发[2023]85号)。
关键词
独花兰
MaxEnt模型
气候因子
适生区分布
Changnienia amoena
MaxEnt model
Climatic factors
Suitable habitat distribution
