摘要
新型电力系统建设是我国建设新型能源体系的重要内容。针对电力系统转型规划问题,本文构建了区域电力系统规划转型模型Switch_lvliang,通过对比加入碳中和约束、热电联产技术以及工业侧需求响应后的4种情景,深入分析吕梁市2025—2035年的电力系统转型路径。结果表明:热电联产技术有助于提高能源利用效率,工业侧需求响应则能优化能源分配,多种策略的综合应用将更有利于实现吕梁市电力系统的低碳、高效和可持续发展。在未来的电力转型过程中,热电联产和工业侧需求响应技术的协同应用有望成为重要的降本增效手段。其中,加入热电联产技术后,电力系统转型成本相较于不加该技术下降12.25%,年度项目总固定成本同比降低40.39%;引入工业侧需求响应后,总成本相较于不加入需求响应的情景下降2.11%,能够为实现碳中和目标提供支持。不同情景下能源调度各有侧重。碳中和约束促使可再生资源调度占比提升,减少对煤炭的依赖;热电联产技术能够提高系统效率与调度灵活性,降低总能源调度量与成本;工业侧需求响应能够实现工业与电力系统协同调度,优化能源时空分配,提高能源利用效率,减少总发电量需求。
The construction of a new power system is an important part of China’s new energy system construction.In response to the power system transformation planning problem,this paper constructs a regional power system planning transformation model,Switch_lvliang.By comparing four scenarios after adding carbon neutrality constraints,combined heat and power(CHP)technology,and industrial-side demand response,the paper deeply analyzes the power system transformation path of Lvliang City from 2025 to 2035.The results show that CHP technology helps improve energy utilization efficiency,and industrial-side demand response can optimize energy distribution.The comprehensive application of multiple strategies is more conducive to the low-carbon,efficient and sustainable development of the power system in Lvliang City.In the future power transformation process,the collaborative application of CHP and industrial-side demand response technologies is expected to become an important means of cost reduction and efficiency improvement,providing support for achieving the carbon neutrality goal.Energy scheduling has different focuses under different scenarios.Carbon neutrality constraints promote an increase in the proportion of renewable resource scheduling,reducing dependence on coal.CHP technology improves system efficiency and scheduling flexibility,reducing the total energy scheduling volume and cost.Industrial-side demand response realizes the coordinated scheduling of the industrial and power systems,optimizes the spatio-temporal distribution of energy,improves energy utilization efficiency,and reduces the total power generation demand.
作者
朱磊
王佳蕊
薛珂洋
ZHU Lei;WANG Jiarui;XUE Keyang(School of Economics and Management,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China;Environmental Defense Fund Beijing Representative Office,Beijing 100007,China)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(72122002,72342002)
