摘要
长期水文预测是实现水资源高效利用的重要技术手段。在调研国内外长期水文预测技术研究进展的基础上,结合长江流域长期水文预测业务需求,提出未来长期水文气象智慧预测系统建设的构想。首先从传统统计方法、机器学习方法及水文-气象模型耦合方法3方面对长期水文预测技术进行了梳理归纳,并分析总结了目前存在的主要问题;其次,介绍了长江流域长期水文预测业务现状,以及在准确率、不确定性等方面面临的挑战;基于此,提出了一个集智能化、科学化、高效化于一体的长江流域长期水文气象智慧预测系统的构想。该系统汇聚长期气候“百科问答”、长期雨云“未来导航”、长期水流“智慧分析”、长期预测“资治通鉴”、长期成果“产品智驭”等功能于一体,旨在提升长期水文预测的准确性和时效性,为长江流域水资源科学管理提供坚实的技术支撑。
Long-term hydrological forecasting is an important technology for the efficient utilization of water resources.In this study,we synthesize global research advances in long-term hydrological forecasting and examine operational needs specific to the Changjiang River Basin,proposing an intelligent framework for next-generation forecasting systems.We first systematically review three methodological categories,that is traditional statistical approaches,machine learning techniques,and coupled hydrological-meteorological modeling,and analyze their key limitations.Second,we describe the current status of long-term hydrological forecasting operations in the Changjiang River Basin,as well as the challenges faced in terms of accuracy,uncertainty,and other aspects.Building on this,we propose an innovative framework for an intelligent,science-based,and efficient long-term hydro-meteorological forecasting system.This system integrates five key modules:climate pattern diagnostics("Encyclopedia"),precipitation trajectory modeling("Precipitation Navigator"),adaptive hydrological analysis("Smart Basin Analyst"),predictive benchmarking("Evaluation and Recommendation"),and dynamic product generation("Output Engine").It aims to improve the accuracy and timeliness of long-term hydrological forecasting and provide robust technical support for the scientific management of water resources in the Changjiang River Basin.
作者
邱辉
王乐
董轩
胡义明
QIU Hui;WANG Le;DONG Xuan;HU Yiming(Bureau of Hydrology,Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,China;Innovative Team for Long-Term Intelligent Prediction of Water Clouds in the Yangtze River Basin,Wuhan 430010,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)
出处
《人民长江》
北大核心
2025年第12期253-263,共11页
Yangtze River
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3206001)
国家自然科学基金长江水科学研究联合基金项目(U23402130)
湖北省自然科学基金三峡联合基金项目(2023AFD203)。
关键词
长期水文预测
水文气象
智慧预测系统
产品智驭
长江流域
long-term hydrological forecasting
hydro-meteorology
intelligent forecasting system
product intelligent operation
Changjiang River Basin
