摘要
在全球气候变化与人类活动叠加效应下,人为火源已成为当前森林火灾发生的主要诱因。人为火源森林火灾(简称人为火)具有地域分布广泛性、火险多发性和人为活动强关联性的特点,防控难度较大,在近年来发生的森林火灾中占比约高达90%,造成了严重的生态破坏和经济损失。文中探讨人为火的致灾因素及防控方法,从空间维度探究其易发生的地理环境特征,从时间维度揭示其高发的时间分布规律,从行为维度解析致灾的人为活动属性,基于“风险环境-风险周期-风险源”架构剖析人为火致灾因素研究现状;在此基础上,从致灾因素量化、映射关系建模、多领域知识耦合3方面梳理人为火防控方法研究进展,分析其在理论基础、应用效能和适用场景上的优势和局限性,从空间布防和行为干预方面提出措施优化建议,并从量化人为活动特征和解构人为火灾害链难点问题方面进行展望,以期通过整合现有研究成果明晰影响人为火发生的关键因子与现有方法模型,为人为火精细化管控提供理论支撑。
Under the combined effects of global climate change and human activities,human-caused fire source have become the primary driver of forest fires.These human-caused forest fires exhibit widespread geographical distribution,high frequency,and strong correlation with human activities,accounting for approximately 90%of recent wildfires,thereby leading to significant ecological damage and substantial economic losses.This paper explores the causative factors and the prevention approaches for human-caused forest fires.From a spatial perspective,it examines the geographical and environmental characteristics of fireprone areas;from a temporal perspective,it reveals the temporal distribution patterns of high fire incidence;and from a behavioral perspective,it analyzes the attributes of human activities contributing to fire ignition.Under the framework of“risk environment−risk cycle−risk source”,the paper reviews the research progress on human-caused fire prevention and control in terms of quantification of causative factors,modeling of mapping relationships,and integration of multidisciplinary knowledge,analyzes their theoretical foundations,application effectiveness,and advantages and limitations in applicable scenarios.The paper also proposes suggestions for optimizing measures related to spatial deployment and behavioral intervention,and discusses the ways to promote the research by quantifying human activity characteristics and deconstructing the disaster chain of human-caused fires.The aim is to synthesize existing research findings to clarify the key factors influencing human-caused fire occurrences and the current methodologies and models,thereby providing theoretical support for refined human-caused fire management and control.
作者
李晓卓
陈震西
吴爽
张慧
史一凡
王明玉
舒立福
Li Xiaozhuo;Chen Zhenxi;Wu Shuang;Zhang Hui;Shi Yifan;Wang Mingyu;Shu Lifu(Beijing Academy of Emergency Management Science and Technology,Beijing 100191,China;Ecology and Nature Conservation Institute,Chinese Academy of Forestry,Beijing 100091,China;National Forestry and Grassland Fire Monitoring,Early Warning and Prevention Engineering Technology Research Center,Beijing 100091,China)
出处
《世界林业研究》
北大核心
2025年第4期17-23,共7页
World Forestry Research
基金
国家重点研发计划项目“雷击火和山地森林火灾风险预测和防控关键技术研发和示范”(2023YFD2202005,2023YFD2202001)。
关键词
森林火灾
人为火源
致灾因子
林火防控
forest fire
human-caused fire source
causal factor
forest fire prevention
