摘要
评估城市化进程中土地利用变化下的生态环境质量演变,对于合理制定经济发展规划、推进生态环境保护、优化国土资源开发利用等具有重要意义。基于珠三角土地利用数据和社会经济、交通区位、自然条件等驱动因子,采用CLUE-S模型模拟了生态保护情景下2035年土地利用变化,并通过构建生态环境质量指数,评估并预测了未来土地利用变化导致的生态环境质量时空演变。结果表明:本研究利用CLUE-S模型对珠三角土地利用变化进行模拟与预测,Kappa系数为0.92,表明该模型模拟效果好,能够准确再现土地利用趋势;预测2035年生态保护情景下,珠三角的土地利用将发生显著变化,城镇用地增多,农田和草地减少。生态环境质量退化主要源于农田与森林向城镇用地的转化,生态环境质量分布整体呈现“中心低-外围高”的空间分异特征。
It is of great significance to evaluate the evolution of ecological environment quality under land use changes during the urbanization process for formulating reasonable economic development plans,promoting ecological and environmental protection,and optimizing the development and utilization of national land resources.Based on land use data of the Pearl River Delta(PRD)region and driving factors such as social economy,transportation location,and natural conditions,the CLUE-S model was adopted to simulate land use changes in 2035 under the ecological protection scenario.By constructing an ecological environment quality index(EEQI),the temporal and spatial evolution of ecological environment quality caused by future land use changes was evaluated and predicted.The results showed that the simulation and prediction of land use changes in the PRD region using the CLUE-S model yielded a Kappa coefficient of 0.92.The model's simulation effect was proven to be excellent,and the evolution trend of land use could be accurately reproduced.Under the ecological protection scenario predicted for 2035,significant changes in land use would occur in the PRD region:urban land would increase significantly,while the areas of farmland and grassland would decrease obviously.The degradation of ecological environment quality was mainly caused by the conversion of farmland and forest to urban land.The spatial distribution of ecological environment quality generally showed a spatial differentiation characteristic of"low in the center and high in the periphery".
作者
董凯辉
鄢林洁
张宏锋
黄宝莹
DONG Kaihui;YAN Linjie;ZHANG Hongfeng;HUANG Baoying(Guangdong Provincial Academy of Environmental Science,Guangzhou 510045,China)
出处
《环境保护科学》
2025年第6期155-161,共7页
Environmental Protection Science
基金
“广东省典型自然保护地生态环境状况监测评估”(粤财预[2024]4号)。
关键词
珠三角
CLUE-S模型
土地利用变化
生态环境质量
时空演变
Pearl River Delta
CLUE-S model
land use change
ecological environment quality
temporal and spatial evolution
