摘要
以新基建赋能数字孪生城市建设,推动智慧城市升级转型,是构筑城市竞争新优势的关键之举,也是推动城市治理体系和治理能力现代化的必然要求。文章以2011—2022年中国149个智慧城市试点单位作为研究对象,将新基建视为数字孪生城市建设的重要路径,通过三阶段数据包络模型(Data Envelopment Analysis,DEA)测度了新基建视角下数字孪生城建潜力,最后使用多期马尔科夫模型从时间演化和空间溢出2方面对数字孪生城建潜力进行研究。结果发现:1)第一阶段全国综合技术效率基本保持上升趋势,其中东北地区、西部地区和中部地区的效率值表现为波动上升态势,而东部地区的效率值始终处于低位。2)在第三阶段,剔除环境因素和随机干扰项后发现,效率值在空间上的聚集性得到提升,高值地区集中在京津冀城市群、鲁东地区及省会城市,对比第一阶段和第三阶段效率值发现,东部地区效率值实现了反超,表示其在数字孪生城建潜力方面具备优势,而东北、西部和中部地区效率值有所下降。3)基于传统马尔科夫模型发现,数字孪生城建潜力存在发展惯性,随着跨期数的增加,数字孪生城建潜力梯度升级趋势增强;基于空间马尔科夫模型发现,数字孪生城建潜力的发展会受邻域地区的影响,空间上同时存在正向和负向溢出效应。
Advancing digital-twin city development through new infrastructure and promoting the upgrading and transformation of smart cities is critical for building new competitive advantages for cities and is an inevitable requirement for modernizing urban governance systems and capabilities.Since new infrastructure and digitaltwin cities share similar construction goals,this study examines 149 smart city pilot projects in China from 2011 to 2022,treating new infrastructure as a critical path to the construction of digital twin cities.First,a three-stage data envelopment analysis was used to assess the potential of digital twin city construction from the perspective of new infrastructure.Subsequently,a multi-stage traditional Markov model and a multi-stage spatial Markov model were used to study the potential of digital twin city construction from the perspectives of temporal evolution and spatial spillover,respectively.The results show that:1)In the first stage,the nationwide overall technical efficiency generally maintained an upward trend,with the efficiency values in the Northeast,West,and Central regions showing a fluctuating upward trend,whereas the overall technical efficiency value in the eastern region remained at a low level.2)In the third stage,after removing environmental factors and random disturbances,high-level areas were concentrated mainly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,eastern Shandong,and some provincial capitals.Further comparison of the comprehensive technical efficiency values between the first and third stages revealed that the eastern region had a higher efficiency than the central region,indicating greater potential for digital twin urban construction.In contrast,the efficiency values of the northeastern,western,and central regions declined.3)Traditional Markov models show that digital twin urban construction potential has a significant path-dependent effect,and the upgrading trend of digital twin urban construction potential gradually strengthens with an increase in the number of phases.Further introduction of spatial Markov models,accounting for the spatial correlation between neighboring regions,revealed that the evolution of digital twin urban construction potential was substantially affected by the development levels from neighboring areas,with spatial spillover and siphon effects coexisting.Simultaneously,the impact of neighboring cities at different levels of development on the potential evolution of their respective regions also showed significant differences.The contributions of this study are as follows:1)From a research perspective,it regards the construction of new infrastructure as an important supporting path for the construction of digital twin cities,constructs an analytical framework for new infrastructure to empower the construction of digital twin cities,and measures the potential of digital twin city construction from the perspective of new infrastructure,thus expanding the empirical dimension of cross-disciplinary research on new infrastructure and digital twin cities.2)In terms of indicator construction,it systematically constructs an indicator system covering the industrial space,social space,governance space,and information space of digital twins,more comprehensively depicting the intrinsic characteristics and development potential of digital twin cities.3)In terms of research methodology,this study adopts a three-stage Data Envelopment Analysis model to effectively eliminate the influence of environmental factors and random disturbances on efficiency measurement,combining multi-period traditional Markov models and spatial Markov models to reveal the path dependence,gradient evolution,and evolutionary mechanism of spatial spillover and siphon coexistence of the potential of digital twin city construction from the dual dimensions of temporal evolution and spatial correlation.
作者
王勤升
王宁宁
任禹潼
Wang Qinsheng;Wang Ningning;Ren Yutong(School of Management Science and Engineering,Beijing Information Science and Technology University,Beijing 102206,China)
出处
《热带地理》
北大核心
2026年第1期167-178,共12页
Tropical Geography
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目(24BSH018)。
关键词
新基建
数字孪生
城建潜力
三阶段DEA
马尔科夫模型
new infrastructure
digital twin
urban construction potential
three-stage DEA
Markov model
