摘要
基于2000—2020年我国115个地级资源型城市的人口和社会经济数据,采用GIS空间分析方法揭示资源型城市人口收缩的空间格局和演变特征,并采用有序Logit回归分析和fsQCA方法,实证分析资源型城市人口收缩的影响因素及其组合驱动模式。研究发现:资源型城市人口收缩的程度不断加深、空间集聚趋势逐步凸显,且不同区域和类型的资源型城市人口收缩呈现出显著的时空动态分异;经济发展水平和人口自然增长率是资源型城市人口收缩的核心影响因素,产业结构合理化、产业结构高级化、公共服务水平和政府干预能力等因素的作用方向和作用强度在不同时期存在一定的差异;资源型城市人口收缩是多元影响因素综合互动形成的组态作用结果,组态分析识别出经济支撑不足型、产业转型脆弱型、治理资源空转型、边缘区位主导型和中心城市虹吸型5种驱动模式。据此提出,应根据资源型城市人口收缩的时空分布特征和驱动模式差异,实施分类治理、适应性治理和韧性治理策略,以提升资源型城市发展的韧性和活力。
Based on population and socioeconomic data of 115 prefecture-level resource-based cities in China from 2000 to 2020,this study employs GIS spatial analysis to reveal the spatial patterns and evolutionary characteristics of population shrinkage in resource-based cities.It further applies ordinal Logit regression analysis and fsQCA method to empirically examine the influencing factors of population shrinkage and the configuration-driven mechanisms behind it.The results indicate that population shrinkage in resource-based cities continues to intensify,the trend of spatial agglomeration becomes increasingly pronounced,and significant spatio-temporal differentiation exists across different regions and types of resource-based cities.Economic development and the natural population growth rate are the key factors influencing population shrinkage in resource-based cities,while the direction and strength of impacts from factors such as industrial structure rationalization,industrial structure upgrading,public service level,and government intervention capabilities vary across periods.Population shrinkage in resource-based cities is the outcome of configurational effects formed by the interaction of multiple factors,which can be categorized into five types:insufficient economic support,fragile industrial transformation,ineffective governance resources,peripheral location dominance,and central city siphoning.Accordingly,governance strategies should be tailored to the spatio-temporal distribution and driving paths of population shrinkage in resource-based cities,with an emphasis on classified governance,adaptive governance and resilient governance,so as to enhance their development resilience and vitality.
作者
黄林俊
HUANG Linjun(School of Government,East China University of Political Science and Law,Shanghai 201620,China)
出处
《福建农林大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》
2026年第1期79-92,共14页
Journal of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目(19BZZ085)
华东政法大学优秀博士学位论文培育项目(2025-1-007)。
关键词
资源型城市
人口收缩
时空演变
推力
拉力
resource-based cities
population shrinkage
spatio-temporal evolution
push factors
pull factors
