摘要
随着我国人口老龄化问题日益突出,养老金储备问题备受关注。延迟退休是否能够有效缓解养老金缺口的扩大、确保养老保险基金的可持续性,成为社会关注的焦点。本文通过构建养老金收入与支出的精算模型,预测2025—2055年我国城镇职工基本养老金的收支情况,并模拟延迟退休政策的影响。预测结果表明,总体而言,实施延迟退休政策有助于提高养老金收入水平,降低养老金支出水平,能够增强养老保险基金的可持续性。在未实行延迟退休制度的情况下,城镇职工基本养老保险基金将在2027年首次出现赤字,并且养老金缺口逐年扩大。实施延迟退休政策可将养老金缺口的出现时间推迟至2029年,但受我国老龄化程度加深的影响,其政策效应在后期减弱,养老金缺口并不能完全消除。基于此,本文提出一系列政策建议,旨在通过优化激励机制、健全财政补助体系、强化区域协同与就业政策联动,构建多支柱养老金制度协同发展格局,进而提升城镇职工基本养老金制度的长期可持续性。
As China's population aging intensifies,concerns over pension reserves have become increasingly prominent.Whether delayed retirement can effectively alleviate pension deficits and ensure the sustainability of pension insurance funds has emerged as a focal point of public debate.This study constructs an actuarial model for pension income and expenditure to project the financial status of China's urban employees'basic pension insurance from 2025 to 2055,simulating the impact of a delayed retirement policy.The results demonstrate that,overall,implementing a delayed retirement policy enhances pension income,reduces pension expenditures,and improves fund sustainability.Without such a policy,the urban employees'basic pension insurance fund would face its first deficit in 2027,with the pension gap expanding annually thereafter.The delayed retirement policy postpones the emergence of this gap to 2029;however,due to China's deepening demographic aging,the policy's effectiveness diminishes over time,and the pension gap cannot be entirely eliminated.Based on these findings,this paper proposes a series of policy recommendations aimed at optimizing incentive mechanisms,improving the fiscal subsidy system,strengthening regional coordination and employment policy linkages,and fostering a coordinated multi-pillar pension system to enhance the long-term sustainability of the urban employees'basic pension insurance system.
作者
刘刚
李沅霏
LIU Gang;LI Yuanfei(School of Finance,Guangdong University of Finance&Economics;School of Business Administration,Guangdong University of Finance&Economics)
出处
《金融经济》
2025年第9期61-72,共12页
Finance Economy
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“金融市场开放环境下的国家金融安全研究”(20BJY241)的阶段性研究成果。
关键词
人口老龄化
养老金缺口
延迟退休
基本养老金可持续性
Population aging
Pension funding gap
Delayed retirement
Basic pension sustainabilitys
