摘要
为了有效遏制我国非煤矿山行业安全生产事故,基于2015—2022年我国非煤矿山安全生产事故数据,开展产业结构特征分析、事故类型统计及时空耦合关联研究,基于灰色系统理论构建预测模型,揭示非煤矿山安全生产事故时序分布规律。研究结果表明:我国非煤矿山产业结构呈现“中小型矿山主导+矿种开采方式分化”特征,其中非金属矿山露天开采比例显著高于黑色金属和有色金属矿山。事故类型构成中冒顶片帮(25.5%)、机械伤害(11.5%)及车辆伤害(10.8%)为主,构成非煤矿山3大核心风险因素。安全生产事故在区域分布上呈现显著集聚特征,云南、辽宁和内蒙古事故总量占比达29.1%。我国非煤矿山安全生产事故发生率在每年4~8月呈现高峰期,与汛期具有明显耦合关系。基于灰色系统理论的预测结果显示,在2025—2030年我国非煤矿山安全生产事故将呈显著下降趋势,年均降幅为10.8%,该预测结果与我国安全生产治理体系优化的动态规律形成实证契合。研究结果对我国非煤矿山安全生产特别是有效遏制重特大事故的发生具有一定的指导作用。
To effectively curb safety accidents in China’s non-coal mining industry,this study analyzes accident data from 2015 to 2022,examining industrial structure characteristics,accident type statistics,and spatiotemporal coupling correlations.A prediction model was constructed based on grey system theory to reveal the temporal distribution patterns of safety accidents.The results indicate that China’s non-coal mining industry structure is characterized by“small and medium-sized mines dominating+differentiated mining methods for mineral types,”with the open-pit mining ratio for non-metal mines being significantly higher than that for ferrous and non-ferrous metal mines.Roof fall and rib spalling(25.5%),mechanical injuries(11.5%),and vehicle-related injuries(10.8%)constitute the three core risk factors.Safety accidents exhibit significant regional clustering,with Yunnan,Liaoning,and Inner Mongolia accounting for 29.1%of the total.The accident rate peaks annually from April to August,showing a clear coupling relationship with the flood season.Predictions based on grey system theory suggest a significant downward trend in accidents from 2025 to 2030,with an average annual decrease of 10.8%,empirically aligning with the optimized dynamic pattern of China’s safety governance system.The findings provide guidance for enhancing safety production and preventing major accidents in China’s non-coal mines.
作者
张亦海
张怡斌
马海涛
于正兴
姜旭桐
ZHANG Yihai;ZHANG Yibin;MA Haitao;YU Zhengxing;JIANG Xutong(Cathay Safety Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 102299,China;China Academy of Safety Science and Technology,Beijing 100012,China)
出处
《中国安全生产科学技术》
北大核心
2025年第12期88-96,共9页
Journal of Safety Science and Technology
基金
中国安全生产科学研究院基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2024JBKY20)
应急管理部重点科技计划2024年度项目(2024EMST080802)。
关键词
非煤矿山
风险特征
灰色理论
预测模型
non-coal mines
risk characteristics
grey theory
prediction model
