摘要
数字新质生产力是高质量发展的核心动能,科学测度其发展水平并揭示其时空演化趋势与驱动机制,是精准施策实现数字新质生产力快速发展的必要前提。本文在构建一个包含数字劳动者、数字劳动资料、数字劳动对象等三重维度的数字新质生产力综合测度指标体系基础上,基于2012—2023年长江经济带11省份的面板数据,运用熵权法、马尔可夫链、空间自相关分析及空间杜宾模型,系统考察了该地区数字新质生产力发展水平的时空分异演化特征及主要驱动因素。研究发现:(1)长江经济带数字新质生产力整体呈稳步上升态势,但区域间梯度差异显著,形成了以江苏、浙江、上海为核心的“中心—边缘”空间结构;(2)各省份的数字新质生产力发展呈现出显著的“状态惯性”和空间领域依赖性;(3)全局与局部莫兰指数均证实存在显著的空间正相关性,呈现出“高-高”与“低-低”集聚的典型特征;(4)空间杜宾模型的效应分解显示,经济发展、技术创新与金融发展对本地区数字新质生产力具有直接促进作用,而产业结构升级与政府支持产生了负向空间溢出效应,表明区域协同缺失造成“虹吸困境”。在此基础上,本文从制定差异化区域策略、构建协同创新体系、健全利益协调机制、优化要素配置等方面,探讨了促进长江经济带数字新质生产力整体跃升与空间均衡发展的对策建议。
Digital New Quality Productivity represents an advanced productivity paradigm in the digital era.Conducting scientific and rational level measurement,characteristic analysis,and identification of influencing factors are crucial for enhancing Digital New Quality Productivity.Based on panel data from 11 provinces(municipalities)in the Yangtze River Economic Belt between 2012 and 2023,this study constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system covering digital producers,digital production materials,and digital production objects.By employing methods such as the entropy weight method,Markov chain,and spatial Durbin model,this research systematically examines the development level,spatial correlation pattern,dynamic evolution characteristics,and influencing factors of Digital New Quality Productivity.The findings reveal that:(1)The overall Digital New Quality Productivity in the Yangtze River Economic Belt shows a steady upward trend,but there are significant gradient disparities among regions,forming a"core-periphery"spatial structure centered on Jiangsu,Zhejiang,and Shanghai.(2)The development of Digital New Quality Productivity exhibits notable"state inertia"and spatial dependence,with level transitions occurring only between adjacent types,and the spatial neighborhood context significantly influencing regional development paths.(3)Both global and local Moran's I indices indicate a significant positive spatial correlation,demonstrating"high-high and low-low"clustering characteristics.(4)Regression results from the spatial Durbin model and effect decomposition show that economic development,technological innovation,and financial development significantly promote local Digital New Quality Productivity,while industrial structure and government support exhibit negative spatial spillover effects,reflecting a"siphoning dilemma"caused by the lack of regional coordination mechanisms.Accordingly,this study proposes countermeasures and recommendations from the perspectives of regional differentiation strategies,collaborative innovation systems,interest coordination mechanisms,and factor allocation policies to promote the overall leap and spatial equilibrium of Digital New Quality Productivity.
作者
潘卫华
柳彩华
Pan Weihua;Liu Caihua(School of Foreign Studies and Trade,Hubei University of Automotive Technology,Shiyan,Hubei 430072;School of Digital Economy,Hubei University of Automotive Technology,Shiyan,Hubei 430072)
出处
《长江论坛》
2025年第6期27-41,共15页
Yangtze Tribune
