摘要
分析人口变动和职业教育资源配置间的关系,离不开产业这一关键要素。基于人口经济学的视角,在产业的作用下,人口对职业教育资源配置的影响,存在直接效应、中介效应和调节效应三种模式。当前我国职业教育资源配置呈现中高职生源分段达峰与差异化配置、职业教育资源配置的集聚化和集约化、职业教育资源的行政配置和市场配置相结合、城乡职业教育资源配置的断裂和协同并存等特征。从人口、产业和职业教育资源配置的三维互动关系出发,未来职业教育资源配置应处理好存量配置和增量配置的关系、行政配置和市场配置的关系、中央配置和地方配置的关系、产业导向配置和个体导向配置的关系。在对策上,要动态监测直接效应,把握区域人口红利对职业教育发展的促进;重点关注中介效应,基于区域产业发展需求联动调控人口和职业教育办学;积极回应调节效应,增进职业教育提升优质人力资本的能力。
Analyzing the relationship between population changes and vocational education resource allocation must consider the pivotal role of industry.From the perspective of population economics,industry influences how population affects vocational education resource allocation through three distinct modes:the direct effect,the mediating effect,and the moderating effect.Currently,vocational education resources allocation in China exhibits several characteristics.Vocational education resources in China today show several clear trends.First,there is separate demand for students in secondary versus higher vocational programs.Second,resources are becoming more concentrated and intensive.Third,allocation mixes government planning with market forces.Finally,urban and rural resource distribution is both fragmented and collaborative.Considering the interplay among demographic,industrial,and vocational education resources,future allocation must navigate between stock and increment,administration and market,central and local authorities,and industry orientation and individual needs.In terms of countermeasures,it is necessary to dynamically monitor the direct effects and grasp the promotion of regional demographic dividends on the development of vocational education;focus on the intermediary effects,and coordinately regulate population and vocational education based on the development needs of regional industries;actively respond to the regulatory effects and enhance the ability of vocational educaiton to improve highquality human capital.
作者
李政
Li Zheng(Institute of Vocational and Adult Education,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China)
出处
《职教论坛》
北大核心
2025年第12期19-28,共10页
Journal of Vocational Education
基金
全国教育科学“十四五”规划国家一般课题“服务人口高质量发展的职业教育资源配置机制研究”(编号:BJA240171),主持人:李政。
关键词
人口变动
职业教育
资源配置
人口高质量发展
人口经济学
population change
vocational education
resource allocation
high-quality development of the population
population economics
