摘要
系统揭示中国海外农业投资风险扩散机制,对于统筹发展和安全、回应总体国家安全观、落实海外投资风险治理意义重大.基于复杂网络理论,构建风险扩展的传染病动力学模型,模拟了不同条件下中国海外农业投资风险扩散的多维情景.结果发现,企业海外农业投资风险扩散符合复杂网络特征,任一环节要素改变均引起风险扩散速度、扩散周期和感染国家的结果差异;不同经济关联程度的国家影响投资风险扩散差异明显,经济关联国家数目越多、接触感染率越高,投资风险扩散速度越快、传染国家越多;不同投资风险消除周期对已风险消除国家数量影响呈倒U型;政策组合强度对于已感染国家风险消除并非越强越好,供给不足和过度干预的政策强度均不利于风险消除.本研究对于动态认识中国企业海外农业投资风险扩散行为、助力企业及政府实施海外农业投资风险响应管理具有一定的启示作用,对于巩固总体国家安全观具有积极意义.
The system reveals the risk diffusion mechanism of China's overseas agricultural investment,which is of great significance for coordinating development and security,responding to the overall national security concept,and implementing risk governance in overseas investments.Based on complex network theory,a dynamic infectious disease model of risk spread was constructed to simulate multi-dimensional scenarios of risk diffusion in China's overseas agricultural investment under different conditions.The results showed that the risk diffusion of enterprises'overseas agricultural investment conformed to the characteristics of complex networks,where changes in any link element led to differences in risk diffusion speed,cycle,and the number of infected countries.Countries with different economic linkages significantly affected the differences in investment risk diffusion:the more economically linked countries and the higher the contact infection rate,the faster the risk diffusion speed and the more countries infected.The impact of different risk elimination cycles on the number of countries with eliminated risks followed an inverted U shaped pattern.The intensity of policy combinations was not always better for eliminating risks in infected countries—both insufficient supply and excessive intervention were detrimental to risk elimination.This study provided valuable insights for dynamically understanding the risk diffusion behavior of China's enterprises in overseas agricultural investment and assisting enterprises and governments in implementing risk response management,which had positive implications for consolidating the overall national security concept.
作者
宋鹏云
何邦路
曾志庆
温涵
SONG Pengyun;HE Banglu;ZENG Zhiqing;WEN Han(Institute of National Security and Regional Development,Southwestern Minzu University,Chengdu 610041,China;School of Economics and Management,Yan an University,Yan an 716000,China;Revolutionary Committee of the Chinese Kuomintang Sichuan Provincial Committee,Chengdu 610031,China)
出处
《西南民族大学学报(自然科学版)》
2025年第6期600-611,共12页
Journal of Southwest Minzu University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
国家社会科学基金(25XJY051)
国家自然科学基金(72174172)
陕西省自然科学基金青年项目(2025JC-YBQN1004)
陕西省社会科学基金项目(2024R050)。
关键词
总体国家安全观
海外农业投资
风险扩散
仿真
传染病动力学模型
overall national security concept
overseas agricultural investment
risk diffusion
simulation
infectious disease dynamics model
