摘要
随着民众生活水平的提升,市场对冷链物流服务的需求日益增长,预示着该行业将迎来更广阔的增长空间。文章基于系统动力学的理论框架,将果蔬生产延迟、配送延迟与冷链温度变化纳入系统动力学模型,量化分析其对需求扭曲波动的影响。参考多家果蔬类生鲜农产品企业冷链网络中的数据,构建一个包含零售商、供应商和生产商三个核心要素的动态交互模型。运用Vensim软件进行仿真分析,发现冷链系统中的库存和销量出现需求扭曲放大现象,在调整参数后的仿真结果中发现缩短配送延迟至3天可使库存降低20%,销售预测提升10%。
With the improvement of people's living standards,the market demand for cold chain logistics services is increasing day by day,indicating that this industry will have a broader growth space.Based on the theoretical framework of system dynamics,this paper incorporates the production delay,distribution delay of fruits and vegetables and the temperature change of the cold chain into the system dynamics model,and quantitatively analyzes their impact on the fluctuation of demand distortion.Referring to the data in the cold chain networks of multiple fresh agricultural product enterprises of fruits and vegetables,a dynamic interaction model including three core elements of retailers,suppliers and producers is constructed.Simulation analysis is conducted using Vensim software,and it is found that there is a phenomenon of demand distortion amplification in inventory and sales volume in the cold chain system.In the simulation results after adjusting the parameters,it is discovered that shortening the delivery delay to 3 days can reduce inventory by 20%and increase sales forecast by 10%.
作者
赖泽鑫
吴仁华
张曼
LAI Zexin;WU Renhua;ZHANG Man(School of Management,Fujian University of Technology,Fuzhou 350118,China)
出处
《物流科技》
2025年第24期159-164,共6页
Logistics Sci Tech
关键词
果蔬类生鲜农产品
冷链物流
需求扭曲波动
库存控制
销量效益
fresh agricultural products of fruits and vegetables
cold chain logistics
distorted fluctuation in demand
inventory control
sales efficiency
