摘要
供应链被认为是一个复杂的系统,为了探究具体事件对供应链系统脆性的影响,引入D-S证据理论的Dempster组合规则能够更加准确地估计事件发生概率,进而找出诱发脆性风险的主要影响因子。在复杂系统脆性理论中,事件发生的概率是研究系统整体脆性的基础,依据Dempster组合规则,将脆性因子作为证据,估计事件发生的概率,且基于集对分析理论,分析供应链系统中子系统间的脆性关系,进而结合熵理论求得供应链系统整体脆性。进一步通过模糊层次分析法对影响供应链脆性因子的权重进行评估,识别主要影响因子,为避免脆性风险的发生提供依据。通过实例分析,验证了模型的实用性和有效性。
The supply chain is considered a complex system.To explore the impact of specific events on the brittleness of supply chain systems,introducing the Dempster combination rule of D-S evidence theory can more accurately estimate the probability of events occurring,thereby identifying the main influencing factors that trigger brittleness risks.In the theory of complex system's brittleness,the probability of events occurring is the basis for studying the overall brittleness of the system.Based on the Dempster combination rule,brittleness factors are treated as evidence to estimate the probability of events occurring.Moreover,based on the set pair analysis theory,the brittleness relationships between subsystems in the supply chain system are analyzed,and then combined with entropy theory to obtain the overall brittleness of the supply chain system.Furthermore,the weights of factors affecting supply chain's brittleness are evaluated through Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(FAHP),identifying the main influencing factors to provide a basis for preventing the occurrence of brittleness risks.Through case analysis,the practicality and effectiveness of the model are verified.
作者
徐新卫
曹海涛
XU Xinwei;CAO Haitao(School of Management Sciences and Engineering,Anhui University of Technology,Ma'anshan 243000,China)
出处
《物流科技》
2025年第24期109-115,共7页
Logistics Sci Tech
基金
安徽省自然科学基金项目(2108085MF217)。
关键词
复杂系统
供应链脆性
D-S证据理论
熵理论
模糊层次分析法
complex systems
supply chain brittleness
D-S evidence theory
entropy theory
Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process
