摘要
全球气候变化背景下,为实现“双碳”目标,合理控制农业经营规模对于实现农业减碳增汇、推动农业绿色发展至关重要。在测算和分析2000—2022年中国31个省份农业净碳汇的基础上,构建双向固定效应模型、中介效应模型及面板门槛模型,实证探究农业经营规模对农业净碳汇的影响及内在作用机理。研究表明,农业经营规模扩大显著促进农业净碳汇提升,在经过替换被解释变量、剔除样本以及运用系统GMM模型检验其稳健性与内生性后,该结论仍然成立。进一步研究发现,其作用机理表现为双重路径:一方面,农业经营规模通过提升机械化免耕播种水平形成中介机制,且机械化免耕播种水平越高,其边际促进效应越强;另一方面,农业受灾面积存在单门槛效应,当农业受灾面积超过特定阈值时,规模扩张对净碳汇的促进作用将被削弱。应合理扩大农业经营规模、加大农机智能化投入、优化种植结构并提升作物抗灾能力,以推动“双碳”目标实现,促进农业绿色发展。
“Dual Carbon”target needs to reach under globally climatic changes through appropriately controlling agricultural operating scales to realize agricultural reducing-carbon-increasing-carbon-sinking and advancing agricultural green development.This paper uses 2000 to 2022 agricultural net carbon sinking of China's 31 provinces to establish a bidirectional fixed effect model,mediation effect model and panel threshold model to study the impacts and mechanism of agricultural operating scales on agricultural net carbon sinking.Upscaling agricultural operation will dramatically promote agricultural net carbon sinking,validated after replacing explained variables,removal of samples and with robustness and endogeneity checked by GMM model.Its mechanism has dual paths,agricultural operating scale can form mediating mechanism through raising mechanization that promotes marginal effect if higher;on the other hand,agricultural damaged area has single threshold effect when agricultural damaged area is over the specific threshold value,scale expansion will weaken the promotion of net carbon sinking.This paper presents suggestions on appropriately enlarging agricultural operating scale,increasing investment in smart agricultural machinery,and optimizing planting structures to boost capabilities against disasters,which can realize dual carbon target and promote agricultural green development.
作者
郑静丹
贯君
刘旭
ZHENG Jingdan;GUAN Jun;LIU Xu(School of Economics and Management,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China)
出处
《资源与产业》
2025年第6期72-82,共11页
Resources & Industries
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金资助项目(23YJC790036)
黑龙江哲学社会科学研究规划项目青年项目(21JYC242)。
关键词
农业经营规模
农业净碳汇
中介效应
门槛效应
双碳
agricultural operating scale
agricultural net carbon sinking
mediating effect
threshold effect
dual carbon
