摘要
政策效应评估作为现代公共经济学与计量建模的核心议题,其本质是在观测数据的有限维度中,构造一个数学上可识别、经济上可解释的“反事实映射”,以精准识别政策干预的真实因果效应。以汕头市2021年实施的“三新两特一大”产业政策为研究对象,构建了一个深度融合数学建模与经济分析工具的综合性评估框架,系统量化政策在因果识别与多路径传导2个维度的作用机制。通过构建带固定效应的双重差分模型识别政策的平均处理效应,并结合结构方程模型解构政策通过新能源发展、创新能力与能源效率等多路径对工业产出的影响机制,完成从“静态效应估计”到“动态机制识别”的建模深化。实证结果表明:政策实施后,扶持产业产值平均提升15.5%~24.0%,效应呈现显著的时间累积性与产业异质性——高技术密集型产业响应强劲(25.7%),传统劳动密集型产业协同乏力。这一“强新兴、弱传统”的结构性特征,验证了政策设计的有效性,揭示了产业升级过程中创新吸收能力与制度适配性的关键作用。研究为公共政策评估提供了一套可计算、可验证、可推广的数学化建模范式。
Policy effect evaluation,as a core issue in modern public economics and econometric modeling,essentially involves constructing a mathematically identifiable and economically interpretable“counterfactual mapping”within the limited dimensions of observational data to precisely identify the true causal effects of policy interventions.This study examines Shantou City's 2021“Three New,Two Special,and One Major”industrial policy,constructing a comprehensive evaluation framework that deeply integrates mathematical modeling and economic analysis tools.It systematically quantifies the policy's operational mechanisms across two dimensions:causal identification and multi-path transmission.By constructing a fixed-effects double difference model(DID)to identify the policy's average treatment effect and combining it with structural equation modeling(SEM)to deconstruct the policy's impact mechanism on industrial output through multiple pathways—including new energy development,innovation capacity,and energy efficiency—the study achieves a modeling advancement from“static effect estimation”to“dynamic mechanism identification.”Empirical results indicate that post-policy implementation,supported industries experienced average output growth of 15.5%~24.0%.Effects exhibited significant temporal accumulation and industrial heterogeneity—high-tech-intensive sectors responded strongly(25.7%),while traditional labor-intensive industries showed weak synergistic effects.This structural pattern of“strong emerging,weak traditional”industries validates the policy design's effectiveness and highlights the critical role of innovation absorption capacity and institutional adaptability in industrial upgrading.This study provides a computable,verifiable,and generalizable mathematical modeling paradigm for public policy evaluation.
作者
刘佳
李嘉
李奥多
沈宝怡
张荣培
王秋萍
LIU Jia;LI Jia;LI Aoduo;SHEN Baoyi;ZHANG Rongpei;WANG Qiuping(School of Advanced Manufacturing,Guangdong University of Technology,Jieyang 522000,China;College of International Education,Shenyang Normal University,Shenyang 110034,China)
出处
《沈阳师范大学学报(自然科学版)》
2025年第5期412-417,共6页
Journal of Shenyang Normal University:Natural Science Edition
基金
广东省教学科学规划课题(2024GXJK624)
揭阳市哲学社会科学项目(2024JY24KL16)。
关键词
政策评估
因果推断
双重差分法
结构方程模型
数学经济融合
policy evaluation
causal inference
difference-in-differences
structural equation modeling
mathematical-economic integration
