摘要
大国贸易摩擦下制造业新质生产力的发展不仅取决于外需冲击,还在很大程度上受到新兴国家循环模式的影响。文章利用2010—2022年中国制造业面板数据,检验了外需冲击与循环模式对制造业新质生产力的影响。研究发现,随着逆全球化趋势不断加剧,国际循环模式引致的“断链”与“断供”风险使得中国制造业关键核心技术“卡脖子”问题日益突出,高端供给短板导致的供需结构失衡使得外需冲击对制造业新质生产力的作用不显著。双循环模式极大地推动了中国制造业“以我为主”的全球价值链体系构建,并借助外需冲击拓展了中国制造业的创新边界,实现了全球创新产业资源的国内集聚,对中国制造业新质生产力的发展有显著的正向效应。
The development of new quality productivity in manufacturing under the trade friction of big countries not only depends on the external demand shock,but also on the impact of the new rejuvenation circulation mode to a large extent.This paper uses the panel data of China’s manufacturing industry from 2010 to 2022 to estimate the impact of external demand shocks and circulation patterns on manufacturing new quality productivity.The study finds that with the increasing trend of anti-globalization,the risk of“chain breaking”and“supply cut”caused by the international circulation mode have made the“throat clutched”problem of key core technologies in China’s manufacturing industry increasingly prominent.The imbalance of supply and demand structure caused by the“short board”of high-end supply makes insignificant the impact of external demand on the improvement of manufacturing new quality productivity.The dual circulation mode has greatly promoted the construction of a“self-centered”global value chain system in China’s manufacturing industry,and has expanded the innovation boundaries of China’s manufacturing industry by leveraging external demand shocks,achieving the domestic aggregation of global innovation industrial resources,which has a significant positive effect on the development of new quality productive forces in China’s manufacturing industry.
作者
宋炜
张文静
何静
Song Wei;Zhang Wenjing;He Jing(School of Management,Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi’an 710055,China)
出处
《统计与决策》
北大核心
2025年第23期137-142,共6页
Statistics & Decision
基金
国家社会科学基金西部项目(21XJL004)
陕西省社会科学基金年度项目(2025D011)。
关键词
外需冲击
循环模式
国际循环
国内循环
制造业新质生产力
external demand shock
circulation mode
international circulation
domestic circulation
new quality productivity of manufacturing
