摘要
【目的】无患子是我国重要的木本油料、清洁能源树种。采用Biomod2组合模型模拟无患子在不同时期潜在适宜分布区域,分析限制无患子物种分布的主导环境因子,旨在为无患子栽培区划提供理论依据。【方法】通过数据库查询、文献检索和实地调查等方式,获取当前时期的无患子地理分布数据;采用R语言与ArcGIS软件,筛选无患子地理分布点;使用方差膨胀因子和Pearson相关系数检验,筛选气候、土壤和地形因子;综合使用真实技巧统计值、Kappa系数和受试者工作特征曲线下面积,评价模型的精度;利用刀切法并结合环境因子贡献率,探讨制约无患子地理分布的主导环境因子;利用Biomod2程序包中的物种分布模型,采用加权平均法集成构建组合模型,模拟在末次冰盛期、全新世中期、当前(1970—2000s)及未来(2041—2060s)时期无患子潜在分布区;利用自然三等分法,划分无患子适生分布区等级。【结果】组合模型的模拟精度较所有单一模型精度高,效果更好。最热季平均降水量(350~1650 mm)、等温性(5%~53%)、最热月最高温(18~37℃)和最潮湿季度平均温度(15~32℃)是制约无患子地理分布的主导环境因子。末次冰盛期至全新世中期,无患子主要分布于青藏高原;全新世中期以来,该物种的潜在适宜分布区面积不断扩大;未来气候情景下,无患子潜在的适宜分布区面积仍将扩大。【结论】青藏高原可能是无患子冰期避难所,影响无患子地理分布的主导环境因子为其生长发育期的温度、降水及等温性,该物种最适宜分布于亚热带季风性湿润气候区。未来的不同气候场景下,无患子潜在的适宜分布区呈现出破碎化扩张的趋势。本研究结果,对推动无患子人工林资源培育及其产业发展具有指导意义。
【Objective】Sapindus mukorossi is an important woody oil plant and clean energy tree species in China.This study employed the Biomod2 ensemble model to simulate the potentially suitable distribution areas of S.mukorossi across different periods and to analyze the dominant environmental factors limiting its distribution.The aim was to provide a theoretical basis for the cultivation zoning of S.mukorossi.【Method】Geographical distribution data of S.mukorossi for the current period were obtained through database queries,literature retrieval,and field surveys.R language and ArcGIS software were used to screen the geographical distribution points.Variance inflation factor(VIF)and Pearson correlation coefficient tests were applied to screen climate,soil,and topographic factors.Model accuracy was evaluated using the true skill statistic(TSS),Kappa coefficient,and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve(AUC).The dominant environmental factors constraining the geographical distribution of S.mukorossi were identified using the jackknife test combined with environmental factor contribution rates.Species distribution models within the Biomod2 package were integrated using a weighted mean approach to build an ensemble model.This model was used to simulate the potential distribution areas of S.mukorossi during the last glacial maximum(LGM),mid-holocene,current period(1970-2000s),and Future period(2041-2060s).The natural breaks method was used to classify the suitability levels of the distribution areas.【Result】The ensemble model demonstrated higher accuracy and better performance than all individual models.The dominant environmental factors constraining the geographical distribution of S.mukorossi were:mean precipitation of the warmest quarter(350-1650 mm),isothermality(5%-53%),maximum temperature of the warmest month(18-37℃),and Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter(15-32℃).From the LGM to the Mid-Holocene,S.mukorossi was mainly distributed on the Tibetan Plateau.Since the Mid-Holocene,the area of its potentially suitable distribution has continuously expanded.Under future climate scenarios,the potentially suitable distribution area for S.mukorossi is projected to continue expanding.【Conclusion】The Tibetan Plateau may have served as a glacial refuge for S.mukorossi.The dominant environmental factors influencing its geographical distribution are temperature,precipitation,and isothermality during its growth and development period.The species is most suitable for distribution in subtropical monsoon humid climate zones.Under different future climate scenarios,the potentially suitable distribution area of S.mukorossi shows a trend of fragmented expansion.The findings of this study provide guidance for promoting the cultivation of S.mukorossi plantation resources and the development of its related industries.
作者
吴雪睿
张金锦
张嘉芸
陈明皋
郑娟
王旭军
徐刚标
WU Xuerui;ZHANG Jinjin;ZHANG Jiayun;CHEN Minggao;ZHENG Juan;WANG Xujun;XU Gangbiao(School of Forestry,Central South University of Forestry&Technology,Changsha 410004,Hunan,China;Hunan Forestry Academy,Changsha 410004,Hunan,China;Datong Mountain State-owned Forest Farm,Shimen County,Hunan Province,Changde 415325,Hunan,China)
出处
《中南林业科技大学学报》
北大核心
2025年第11期138-147,共10页
Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology
基金
“十四五”国家重点研发计划课题(2024YFD2201305)
湖南省林业科技攻关与创新资金项目(XLKY202305)。
关键词
无患子
Biomod2组合模型
气候变化
潜在分布区
Sapindus mukoross
Biomod2 ensemble model
climate change
potential distribution areas
