摘要
野生玫瑰(Rosa rugosa)为蔷薇科(Rosaceae)著名的观赏和香料植物,明确野生玫瑰在中国的适生区域,对于野生玫瑰的保护和开发利用具有不可估量的意义。研究利用ArcGIS和Maxent对野生玫瑰在末次盛冰期(21kaBP)、当代(1990-2010年)、未来(2060-2080年)3个不同时期的中国适生分布区进行预测,筛选影响其分布的主导环境因子。结果显示:(1)Maxent模型对野生玫瑰适生分布区的预测AUC测试值0.999,准确率较高,说明结果可用于研究野生玫瑰的适生区划分。(2)野生玫瑰在当代气候条件下预测的适生区范围为115°-125°E,35°-45°N;适生分布区主要集中在四川、山东、河北、辽宁、吉林、黑龙江等地;野生玫瑰当代适生区总面积为176.94×10^(4)km^(2),占总国土面积的18.43%。(3)未来(2060-2080年),野生玫瑰适生区面积最大,相较于当代(1990-2010年),高适生区面积增量为11.49×10^(4)km^(2),是当代面积的148.58%。(4)刀切法分析显示,影响野生玫瑰适生分布的环境因子主要为Bio18(最暖季度平均雨量)、Bio3(昼夜温差与年温差比值)、Bio5(最热月份最高温)和Bio12(年平均雨量)。本研究为野生玫瑰资源的保护与开发利用提供了科学依据。
Wild rose(Rosa rugosa)is a famous ornamental and spice plant of the Rosaceae family,which is of immeasurable significance for the protection and development of wild roses in China.ArcGIS and MaxEnt were used to predict the suitable distribution areas of wild roses in China during the last glacial maximum(21 ka BP),contemporary(1990-2010)and future(2060-2080),and the dominant environmental factors affecting its distribution were screened.The results showed that:(1)The predicted AUC value of the MaxEnt model for the suitable distribution area of wild roses was 0.999,which was highly accurate,indicating that the results could be used to study the division of suitable areas of wild roses.(2)The predicted suitable habitat range of wild rose under contemporary climatic conditions was 115°-125°E and 35°-45°N.The suitable distribution areas are mainly concentrated in Sichuan,Shandong,Hebei,Liaoning,Jilin,Heilongjiang and other regions.The total area of the contemporary suitable areas of wild rose is 176.94×10^(4)km^(2),accounting for 18.43%of the total land area.(3)In the future(2060-2080),the areas of suitable areas of wild rose is the largest,and compared with the contemporary period(1990-2010),the area increase of high suitable areas is 11.49×10^(4)km^(2),which is 148.58%of the contemporary area.(4)Jackknife method cut analysis showed that the main environmental variables affecting the suitable distribution of wild roses were Bio18(average rainfall in the warmest season),Bio3(the ratio of diurnal temperature difference to annual temperature difference),Bio5(highest temperature in the hottest month)and Bio12(annual average rainfall).This study provides a scientific basis for the conservation,development and utilization of wild rose resources.
作者
张志文
许建军
臧凤岐
马燕
臧德奎
周长岭
鲁仪增
吴其超
ZHANG Zhiwen;XU Jianjun;ZANG Fengqi;MA Yan;ZANG Dekui;ZHOU Changling;LU Yizeng;WU Qichao(Key Forestry Laboratory of State Forestry Administration of the Lower Yellow River/College of Forestry College,Shandong A gricultural University,Shandong Taian 271018;Taian City Landscaping Management Seric Center,Taian Shangdong 271099;Shandong Provincial Center of Forest and Grass Germplasm Resources,Jinan Shandong 250102)
出处
《山东林业科技》
2025年第4期1-7,共7页
Journal of Shandong Forestry Science and Technology
基金
山东省重点研发计划(重大科技创新工程)项目“林木种质资源挖掘与精准鉴定”(2021LZGC023)
山东省重点研发计划项目(2024LZGC003)
2021年山东省高等学校“青创科技支持计划”项目:物种保护与生物入侵创新团队(鲁教科函[2021]51)。
