摘要
通过对江西省资源环境承载力的评价分析,揭示江西省资源环境承载力特征,有利于更好地推进江西省的生态文明建设。基于资源环境承载力内涵,选取29个指标,从资源、环境、经济、社会四个子系统构建江西省资源环境承载力指标体系,采用分类排列多边形图示法计算子系统的承载力水平,然后用熵权法确定资源环境承载力。在此基础上,利用极限学习机建立当年指标变量与次年资源环境承载力的非线性映射关系,并采用灰关联度对影响资源环境承载力的因素进行分析。研究结果表明:在2003—2018年间,江西省资源环境承载力由2003年的0.3083上升到2018年的0.8121,总体呈波动上升趋势,实现了高速增长的非稳定态向理想承载近似稳定态的转变。从子系统上看,经济承载力呈较大幅度的稳定上升趋势,由2003年的0.2742增长到2018年的0.9113,环境承载力呈波动上升趋势,而资源承载力和社会承载力呈现先波动上升,后缓慢回落的趋势。资源、环境、经济、社会这四个子系统对江西省资源环境承载力的提高有促进作用,同时部分因素也有阻碍作用,在工业污染的环境治理方面的需求落后于经济的持续增长,已经成为当前制约资源环境承载力的主要因素。
By evaluating and analyzing the resource and environmental carrying capacity(RECC)of Jiangxi Province,this study reveals its characteristics,which will facilitate the advancement of ecological civilization construction in the region.Based on the connotation of resources and environmental carrying capacity,an evaluation index system for the carrying capacity for resources and environment of Jiangxi province was constructed based on 29 factors from 4 areas including resources,environment,economy and society.The classified arrangement polygon graphical method was employed to calculate subsystem carrying capacity levels,followed by the entropy weight method to determine comprehensive RECC.Subsequently,an extreme learning machine(ELM)was utilized to establish nonlinear mapping relationships between annual indicator variables and subsequent-year RECC,with grey relational analysis applied to identify influencing factors.Study results showed that the index of the RECC of Jiangxi province increased from 0.3106 in 2003 to 0.8121 in 2018,showing an overall fluctuating upward trend and transitioning from a high-growth unstable state to a near-stable ideal carrying state.Subsystem analysis reveals that economic carrying capacity exhibited substantial steady growth(0.2742 to 0.9113),environmental carrying capacity showed fluctuating growth,while resource and social carrying capacities displayed initial increases followed by gradual declines.All four subsystems contributed to RECC improvement in Jiangxi province,while some factors hindered it.The environmental governance of industrial pollution lagged behind the continuous growth of economy,which has become the main factor restricting the RECC.
作者
丰娟
刘勇
唐勇波
龚国勇
FENG Juan;LIU Yong;TANG Yongbo;GONG Guoyong(College of Life Science and Resources and Environment,Yichun University,Yichun 336000,China;Yuanzhou District Water Resources Bureau of Yichun City;College of Smart Manufacturing and Materials&Chemical Engineering,Yichun University,Yichun 336000,China)
出处
《宜春学院学报》
2025年第9期91-98,共8页
Journal of Yichun University
基金
江西省教育厅科技研究项目(编号:GJJ211609)。
关键词
资源环境承载力
熵权法
极限学习机
灰关联度分析
江西省
resources and environmental carrying capacity
entropy-weight method
extreme learning machine
grey relational analysis
Jiangxi province
