摘要
鉴于埋地天然气管道失效的复杂性、模糊性和不确定性,为有效评价管道失效风险等级并预防事故发生,提出一种基于DPSR理论最小鉴别信息组合赋权灰云模型的安全风险评价方法。以某埋地天然气管道为例,综合分析国内外管道失效原因及其所处复杂环境,基于DPSR理论从驱动力压力状态响应四个维度构建了包含7项二级指标和28项三级指标的管道失效安全风险评价指标体系。在此基础上,采用G1法与C-OWA算子组合计算指标主观权重;引入差异系数与CRITIC法组合计算指标客观权重;并采用最小鉴别信息原理计算指标组合权重;结合灰云模型确定各指标不同风险等级下的综合隶属度,判定管道失效风险等级。结果表明:该管道风险等级为较低,评价结果与实际情况相符。验证了该方法的理论合理性及工程应用可行性,为管道安全风险评价提供了一种新方法。
Given the complexity,ambiguity,and uncertainty associated with the failure of buried natural gas pipelines,this study proposes a safety risk assessment method based on the DPSR framework,combined with a minimum discriminant information combination weighting and a grey cloud model,to effectively evaluate pipeline failure risk levels and prevent accidents.Taking a buried natural gas pipeline as a case study,the method involves a comprehensive analysis of domestic and international pipeline failure causes and the complex environments in which they occur.Based on the DPSR framework,a safety risk assessment index system for pipeline failure is constructed,encompassing four dimensions—Driver,Pressure,State,and Response—and including 7 secondary indicators and 28 tertiary indicators.The G1 method and the C-OWA operator are employed to calculate the subjective weights of the indicators,while a combination of the differentiation coefficient and the CRITIC method is used to compute the objective weights.The minimum discriminant information principle is applied to determine the combined weights of the indicators.The grey cloud model is then utilized to calculate the comprehensive membership degree corresponding to various risk levels for each indicator,facilitating the classification of pipeline failure risk levels.The results demonstrate that the pipeline’s risk level is relatively low,with the assessment findings aligning well with the actual conditions.This consistency verifies both the theoretical soundness and practical applicability of the proposed method,presenting a novel approach for pipeline safety risk assessment.
作者
高斐
高宗俊
施赵南
GAO Fei;GAO Zongjun;SHI Zhaonan(School of Petroleum Engineering,Yangtze University,Wuhan 430100,Hubei;Hubei Key Laboratory of Drilling and Production Engineering for Oil and Gas(Yangtze University),Wuhan 430100,Hubei;Tarim Drilling Company,Bohai Drilling Engineering Company Limited,CNPC,Korla 841000,Xinjiang)
出处
《长江大学学报(自然科学版)》
2025年第5期76-87,共12页
Journal of Yangtze University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
企业创新发展联合基金集成项目“海相深层油气富集机理与关键工程技术基础研究”(U19B6003)。
