摘要
根据长输管道系统风险的成因、危害以及所具有的灰色特性,结合国内环境条件、运行状况和管理水平等实际情况,采用灰色关联理论与熵权法相结合的评价模型,对长输管道风险评价作定量的研究,确定了长管道系统的主导风险因素的风险排序。为了降低主观因素的影响,合理优化评价过程,在借鉴长输气管道风险理论研究成果的基础上,首先运用专家评分体系对长输管道系统进行评分,计算出各个风险因素的指标值。将得到的指标值分别运用传统的灰色关联理论模型和熵权改进的灰色理论模型来计算,最后将两组计算结果进行对比研究,证明两种方法的结合使用得出的结果更加客观合理。
Security concern has become increasingly important along with the development of long distance pipelines field. According to the causes and hazard factors as well as the grey characteristics of long distance pipelines system, by the way considering the practical situation of domestic environmental conditions, operation conditions and management level, this article has adopted the combined evalua- tion model consisted of entropy-weighted method and grey relevance theory, to quantitatively evaluate the risks and their priority in long distance pipelines system. The evaluating process is rationally opti- mized for the purpose of overcoming the influence of subjective fac- tots. In addition, it provides a new methodology and a new train of thought for overall merit. By referring to the foundation of theoretical research findings for long distance pipelines risk assessment, this arti- cle has firstly applied the specialist scoring system in the evaluation of long distance pipelines system. Due to the limitations of specialist scoring method itself which is largely influenced by subjective factors, the obtained index values of various risk factors were proceeded to comparative calculation. It means that the result sets of calculations obtained from the traditional grey theoretical model and the improved entropy-weighted grey theoretical model are compared with each other and the relevant conclusions were drawn to explain the rationality and feasibility.
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第5期201-203,共3页
Journal of Safety and Environment
关键词
安全工程
风险评价
长输管道
熵值权重法
灰色关联理论
safety engineering
risk assessment
long distance pipelines
entropy-weighted method
grey relation theory
