摘要
目的:探讨医保药品公开比价对常用零售药品价格的影响,为优化常用零售药品价格治理提供实证分析及理论依据。方法:基于广东省深圳市2023年12月—2025年2月医保定点零售药店的常用零售药品销售结算数据,采用链式费氏指数与ARIMA模型,分析常用零售药品价格变化趋势。结果:研究期内常用零售药品价格水平显著下降两次,但下降之余的稳定期内和对后续预测结果显示价格水平会以月均1%速度回升。不同类别的药品价格变动呈显著异质性:市场竞争激烈、常用程度更高的药品价格受公开比价影响更多,降幅更大。市场主导价格比较机制对药品价格的降幅影响弱于集中带量采购。建议:优化比价小程序设计及宣传以发挥社会监督应有控价效能,利用医保结算数据构建药品价格预警机制,引导企业通过技术创新与服务升级替代价格竞争获取利润。
Objective:To explore the impact of public price comparison of medical insurance drugs on the prices of commonly used retail drugs,and to provide empirical analysis and theoretical basis for optimizing the price governance of commonly used retail drugs.Methods:Based on the sales and settlement data of commonly used drugs in medical insurance designated retail pharmacies in Shenzhen,Guangdong Province from December 2023 to February 2025,the chain Fisher index and ARIMA model were used to analyze the price change trend of commonly used retail drugs.Results:During the study period,the price level of commonly used drugs decreased significantly twice.However,during the stable period after the decline and in the prediction of the price level,the price level would rebound at an average monthly rate of 1%.The price changes of different categories of drugs showed significant heterogeneity:drugs with fierce market competition and higher common use were more affected by public price comparison,with larger price drops.The market-led price comparison mechanism has a weaker impact on drug price reduction than centralized volume-based procurement.Suggestions:Optimize the design and publicity of price comparison mini-programs to give full play to the due price control effect of social supervision,use medical insurance settlement data to build a drug price early warning mechanism,and guide enterprises to obtain profits by replacing price competition with technological innovation and service upgrading.
作者
伍鸿远
蒋蓉
杨帆
WU Hong-yuan;JIANG Rong;YANG Fan(School of Health Policy&Management,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing Jiangsu 211166,China;Institute for Hospital Management of Tsinghua University,Shenzhen Guangdong 518055,China;Department of Pharmacy,Naval Medical University,Shanghai 200433,China;Laboratory for Digital Intelligence&Health Governance,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing Jiangsu 211166,China)
出处
《中国卫生政策研究》
北大核心
2025年第10期9-18,共10页
Chinese Journal of Health Policy
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(72304280)。
关键词
价格指数
零售药品
公开比价
Price index
Retail drugs
Public price comparison
