摘要
气候灾害破坏生产力,加大国际收支脆弱性,制约全球可持续发展。文章选取52个长期经常项目赤字的中低收入国家2006~2019年的面板数据,探索“绿天鹅”事件对这一群体外部经济失衡的影响。研究发现,“绿天鹅”事件具有显著的“穷人效应”,加剧了中低收入国家经常项目赤字。机制分析结果显示,“绿天鹅”事件降低国内产出,阻碍正常国际贸易,强化中低收入国家国际融资约束,进一步增加中低收入国家从不成熟债务国向成熟债务国的跨越难度。“绿天鹅”事件对长期赤字中低收入国家的影响因收入水平、国家结构和政府行动而异。“绿天鹅”事件可能使全球面临“三重厄尔尼诺”风险,放大全球失衡,伤及共同利益。文章认为,未来应建立以国内自救为主、多边帮扶与援助支持下的应对机制,通过“债务换自然”或建立补偿机制等方式,提高整体气候韧性,维护全球共同利益。
Climate disasters undermine productivity,heighten vulnerabilities in the balance of payments,and constrain global sustainable development.Using panel data from 52 low-and middle-income countries with persistent current account deficits between 2006 and 2019,this paper investigates the impact of“Green Swan”events on external imbalances.The findings reveal a pronounced“poverty effect,”whereby such events exacerbate current account deficits in these economies.Mechanism analysis shows that“Green Swan”events reduce domestic output,disrupt international trade,and intensify financing constraints,thereby increasing the difficulty for debtor nations to progress from immature to mature debt status.The magnitude of these effects varies with income level,structural characteristics,and government responses.Moreover,“Green Swan”events may expose the global economy to the risks of a“triple El Niño,”amplifying global imbalances and threatening shared interests.The paper argues for a response framework centered on domestic self-reliance,complemented by multilateral assistance and aid.Mechanisms such as debt-for-nature swaps and compensation schemes are essential to enhancing climate resilience and safeguarding global common interests.
作者
李婧
李贺
姜雪晴
Li Jing;Li He;Jiang Xueqing(Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing;Hebei University of Economics and Business,Shi Jiazhuang;Research Institute of the People’s Bank of China,Beijing)
出处
《经济社会体制比较》
北大核心
2025年第5期71-85,共15页
Comparative Economic & Social Systems
基金
国家社会科学基金重点项目“中国投资发展中国家与其可持续发展的经济逻辑研究”(项目编号:25AGJ003)。
关键词
气候变化
“绿天鹅”事件
外部失衡
经常项目
Climate Change
“Green Swan”Events
External Imbalance
Current Account
