摘要
运用决策试验与评价实验室(DEMATEL)-解释结构模型(ISM)法,结合物理-事理-人理(WSR)系统方法论,对养殖场动物疫病防控生物安全因素进行系统分析。通过DEMATEL法量化各因素的影响度、被影响度、中心度与原因度,识别关键致因因素,借助ISM法构建多层递阶结构模型,揭示因素间的层级关系与风险传递路径。结果表明:经济因素是疫病防控系统中影响度最高(f>1)的根本致因,位于ISM结构最底层,不受其他因素制约,通过物理环境、养殖模式、法律法规3条路径传导风险,直接决定养殖场的生物安全基础条件。基础设施、养殖模式、政府保障等因素中心度较高,是系统防控的核心抓手;而人员素质、操作行为等表层因素虽中心度较低,却是疫情发生的直接诱因,需作为重点监测对象。基于“经济-传导-行为”三级风险链条,提出分层施策的防控建议:以经济因素为根源,加大投入以改善物理环境与设备;以中层核心因素为支撑,强化基础设施与制度保障;以表层行为因素为管控重点,通过培训与标准化操作降低人为风险。本研究验证了DEMATEL-ISM法在动物疫病防控系统中的适用性,为构建“根源投入-中层支撑-表层防控”全链条生物安全体系提供了理论依据与实践路径,有助于提升疫病防控策略的系统性与有效性。
Biosafety factors in animal disease prevention and control on farms were systematically analyzed using decision-making and trial evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL)-interpretative structural modeling(ISM),supplemented by Wuli-Shili-Renli(WSR)system approach.Influence,susceptibility,centrality and causality of each factor was quantifi ed by the DEMATEL to identify key causal factors,and a multi-level hierarchical structural model was constructed using the ISM to reveal hierarchical relationships and risk transmission pathways among the factors.The results showed that the basic biosafety conditions of farms were directly aff ected by economic factors that were identifi ed as the fundamental cause with the highest infl uence(f>1)in disease control system,and located at the lowest level of the ISM structure and free from other factors,through transmitting risk via three pathways including physical environment,farming model and legislation.Factors such as infrastructure,farming model and government support presented high centrality,serving as core levers for systemic prevention and control;while personnel quality,operational behaviors and other surface factors acted as the direct triggers for disease outbreaks,despite of their low centrality,which should be monitored as a priority.Foll owing reco mmendations on multi-tiered response were proposed based on a three-tiered risk chain,namely,“economic-transmission-behavior”:increasing inputs to improve physical environment and equipment,taking economic factors as a root;strengthening infrastructure and institutional safeguards,supported by core middle-level factors;and reducing human-induced risks through training and standardized operation,focusing on surface-level behavioral factors.In the study,the applicability of the DEMATEL-ISM in animal disease prevention and control system was validated,providing a theoretical basis and a practical approach for constructing a biosafety system along the whole chain encompassing“root-level inputs-middlelevel support-surface-level control”,and improving the systematicity and eff ectiveness of disease control strategies.
作者
潘延乐
武启繁
胡晓亮
张守聪
陈铭
陈泓宇
雷明霞
尹华江
Pan Yanle;Wu Qifan;Hu Xiaoliang;Zhang Shoucong;Chen Ming;Chen Hongyu;Lei Mingxia;Yin Huajiang(Agricultural and Rural Affairs Bureau of Cuiping District,Yibin 644000,Sichuan,China;School of Agriculture,Forestry and Food Engineering,Yibin University,Yibin 644005,Sichuan,China;Xingwen Animal Husbandry and Aquaculture Industry Development Center,Xingwen 644400,Sichuan,China;Xinyang Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Technology Service Center,Xinyang 464000,Henan,China;Yibin Animal Husbandry Industry Development Center,Yibin 644002,Sichuan,China;Neijiang Animal and Plant Disease Prevention and Control and Agricultural Product Quality Testing Center,Neijiang 641000,Sichuan,China)
出处
《中国动物检疫》
2025年第11期31-37,共7页
China Animal Health Inspection
基金
2020年四川省“天府万人计划”天府农业大师项目。
