摘要
交通运输行业碳达峰已成为实现“双碳”目标的重要任务.基于交通碳排放系统要素间的因果关系,从经济、人口、交通和碳排放这4个方面构建系统动力学模型,设置基准情景、单情景、低碳情景和强化低碳情景,分析2021~2035年中国交通碳排放变化趋势和交通碳减排潜力,并提出相应建议.结果表明:(1)基准情景下,交通碳排放量快速增长,2035年达到13.88亿t,年均增长率为2.32%,未实现交通碳达峰;(2)单情景下,货运结构强化情景和产业结构强化情景减排效果最佳,2035年交通碳减排量分别为1.24亿t和0.67亿t,减排率分别为8.93%和4.85%;(3)低碳情景下,2021~2030年交通碳排放年均增速为1.77%,2030年后增速逐渐放缓,减排措施开始显现效果.到2035年,交通碳排放预计为11.96亿t,但仍未实现交通碳达峰;(4)强化低碳情景下,通过加大优化运输结构和产业结构,提升交通技术水平等更强有力的减排措施,交通碳排放有望于2033年实现达峰,峰值约为11.30亿t,2035年碳减排率可达18.94%.其中,强化低碳情景下公路碳减排幅度为26.48%,是交通碳减排行动的重要突破口.由此提出优化运输结构、完善交通基础设施、促进产业结构升级和加强交通装备技术研发等建议.
Carbon peaking in the transportation sector has become an important step toward achieving the double carbon goals.Based on the causal relationship among the elements of the transportation carbon emission system,a system dynamics model was constructed from four aspects:economy,population,transportation,and carbon emission.In addition,baseline,single,low-carbon,and enhanced low-carbon scenarios were set up to analyze the change trend of transportation carbon emissions in China and the transportation carbon emission reduction potential from 2021 to 2035,and corresponding suggestions were presented.The results showed that:①Under the baseline scenario,transportation carbon emissions increased rapidly,reaching 1.388 billion tons in 2035,with an average annual growth rate of 2.32%,and the peak of transportation carbon was not achieved.②Under the single scenario,the enhanced freight-and industrial-structure scenarios had the best emission reduction effect,with the carbon emission reduction rate in 2035 reaching 124 and 67 million tons,respectively,and the emission reduction rate reached 8.93%and 4.85%,respectively.③Under the low-carbon scenario,the average annual growth rate of transportation carbon emissions from 2021 to 2030 was 1.77%,and the growth rate was expected to gradually slow down after 2030,with emission reduction measures beginning to show effects.By 2035,transportation carbon emissions were projected to reach 1.196 billion tons,but the peak in transportation carbon was still not reached.④Under the enhanced low-carbon scenario,through more powerful emission reduction measures such as optimizing the transportation structure and industrial structure and improving the level of transportation technology,transportation carbon emissions were projected to peak in 2033,with a peak value of 1.130 billion tons.By 2035,the emission reduction rate could reach 18.94%,among which the road carbon emission reduction rate would be 26.48%under the enhanced low-carbon scenario.This is an important breakthrough for transportation carbon emission reduction.Therefore,suggestions were presented to optimize the transportation structure,improve the transportation infrastructure,promote the upgrading of industrial structure,and strengthen the research and development of transportation equipment technology.
作者
王智琦
李建国
彭彬彬
向万里
王文利
WANG Zhi-qi;LI Jian-guo;PENG Bin-bin;XIANG Wan-li;WANG Wen-li(School of Trafie and Transportation,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China;Freight Deparment,China Railway Lanzhou Group Co.Ld.,Lanzhou 730000 China;Key Laboratoryof Railway Industryon Plateau Railway Transportation Intelligent Management and ControlLanzhou Jiaotong University Lanzhou 730070,China;College of Management and Eonomics,Tianjin University,Tianjn 300072,China;National Industry-Education Platform of Energy Storage,Tianjn University,Tianjin 300072 China;School of Economics and Management,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China)
出处
《环境科学》
北大核心
2025年第11期6806-6818,共13页
Environmental Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(62262037)
甘肃省科技厅软科学项目(23JRZA360)。
关键词
交通运输业
碳排放
系统动力学
情景分析
减排路径
transportation industry
carbon emissions
system dynamics
scenario analysis
emission reduction path
