摘要
为解决高峰时段高速公路应急车道利用效率低的问题,提出考虑时间维度纵深影响的高速公路应急车道动态服役模型。以历史真值和预测结果为基础,采用拥堵阈值模型确定速度阈值和流量阈值,并结合预警模型确定预警值,将所得阈值和预警值作为动态启用应急车道的决策指标。研究结果表明:超过阈值时发生交通拥堵的概率在0.7以上;交通拥堵指数预测模型的均方根误差RMSE,平均绝对误差MAE,平均绝对百分比误差MAPE,决定系数R2在4个观测点的平均值分别为5.715,5.350,6.385%,0.8386;预警值大于2时发生交通拥堵的概率大幅增加。研究结果可为交通管理部门的科学决策提供理论参考。
In order to address the low utilization efficiency of highway emergency lanes during peak periods,a dynamic service model for highway emergency lanes that considers the longitudinal effects of the time dimension is proposed.Based on the historical ground truth and forecast results,this study employs a congestion threshold model to determine speed and flow thresholds,and an early warning model to set the warning value.These thresholds and warning values serve as decision-making indicators for the dynamic activation of emergency lanes.The results indicate that when the thresholds are surpassed,the probability of traffic congestion exceeds 0.7.The root mean square error(RMSE),mean absolute error(MAE),mean absolute percentage error(MAPE),and coefficient of determination(R2)of the traffic congestion index prediction model averaged across four observation points were 5.715,5.350,6.385%,and 0.8386,respectively.Moreover,when the warning value is greater than 2,the probability of congestion increases markedly.These findings provide a theoretical reference for scientific decision-making by traffic management authorities.
作者
林科
梁洪健
陈宁宁
李万彪
潘秋碧
王海波
LIN Ke;LIANG Hongjian;CHEN Ningning;LI Wanbiao;PAN Qiubi;WANG Haibo(Guangdong Zhenye Uctrl Technology Corp.Ltd.,Zhongshan Guangdong 528400,China;School of Civil and Transportation Engineering,Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou Guangdong 510006,China)
出处
《中国安全生产科学技术》
北大核心
2025年第10期40-46,共7页
Journal of Safety Science and Technology
基金
广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目(2023A1515012482)。
关键词
高速公路
应急车道
动态服役
交通拥堵
highway
emergency lanes
dynamic service
traffic congestion
