摘要
目的系统评价糖尿病患者心脑血管疾病风险预测模型。方法检索Pub Med、Embase、Web of Science核心合集数据库、中国知网、万方数据知识服务平台、维普网及Sino Med数据库,搜集相关研究,检索时限从建库至2025年6月。由两名研究者独立筛选文献、提取数据,并评估偏倚风险及适用性。结果共纳入13篇文献,包含37个风险预测模型。所有模型均经过内部验证,其中7篇进行了外部验证,模型曲线下面积为0.640~0.989。主要预测因子包括年龄、吸烟状态、体重指数、糖化血红蛋白及糖尿病病程。偏倚风险评估显示,仅1篇为低风险,其余均为高风险;适用性评估中,10篇为高适用性,其余为低适用性。结论糖尿病患者心脑血管疾病风险预测模型性能较好,但普遍存在偏倚风险。未来研究需优化研究设计并加强外部验证,以提升模型的临床适用性。
Objective To assess systematically the risk prediction models for cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in diabetic patients.Methods A systematic review was performed using PubMed,Embase,Web of Science Collection Database,CNKI,Wanfang Data,VIP,and SinoMed from inception to June 2025.Two researchers independently screened studies,extracted data,and assessed bias risk and applicability.Results This study analyzed 13 studies comprising 37 prediction models.All models completed internal validation,with seven undergoing external validation,the area under the model curve ranges from 0.640 to 0.989.Key predictors included age,smoking,body mass index,glycosylated hemoglobin,and diabetes duration.Bias risk assessment showed that only one article was low risk,and the rest were high risk.Among the applicability evaluations,10 were high applicability and the rest were low applicability.Conclusion Current models demonstrate acceptable performance but exhibit high bias risk.Future research should optimize study design and enhance external validation to improve clinical utility.
作者
易露茜
罗尧岳
左雪
邓赟
易俊儒
刘苹
何燕
YI Luxi;LUO Yaoyue;ZUO Xue;DENG Yun;YI Junru;LIU Ping;HE Yan(School of Nursing,Hunan University of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Hunan Province,Changsha 410208,China;Xueshi Community Health Service Center,Hunan Province,Changsha410036,China)
出处
《中国医药导报》
2025年第27期37-42,共6页
China Medical Herald
基金
湖南省自然科学基金项目(2023JJ70053)
湖南省研究生科研创新项目(CX20240742)。
关键词
心脑血管疾病
糖尿病
预测
模型
系统评价
Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases
Diabetes mellitus
Prediction
Model
Systematic review
