摘要
【目的】基于光伏发电无政策补贴平价上网的背景,对集中式光伏电站平价上网经济性进行综合分析,可以为经济性优化提供参考。【方法】研究了集中式光伏电站经济评价的流程和临界点的精确计算方式,即采用编程递归计算代替传统的拟合曲线法。提出了光伏电站能否平价上网的判断方法,即位于临界点时的上网电价是否低于地区燃煤标杆电价,并以新疆某65.59 MW集中式光伏电站为例进行经济性分析,验证判断方法是否合理。【结果】该算法提升了临界点计算的准确度,并以此为基础分析了全国平价上网的总体形势和成本效益的发展趋势,结果表明全国集中式光伏电站基本可实现平价上网,且中部地区经济效益最好。【结论】通过临界点判断电站能否平价上网将有助于评估电站的抗风险能力,帮助企业做出合理决策,实现降本增效。
[Objectives]Based on the background of photovoltaic power generation without policy subsidy parity,the comprehensive analysis of the economic feasibility of grid parity for centralized photovoltaic power stations can provide a reference for economic optimization.[Methods]The process of economic evaluation of centralized photovoltaic power station and the accurate calculation method of critical point are studied,that is,the programming recursive calculation is used to replace the traditional fitting curve method.This paper puts forward the judgment method of whether the photovoltaic power station can be put on the grid at par,that is,whether the feed-in price at the critical point is lower than the regional coal-fired benchmark price.Taking a 65.59 MW centralized photovoltaic power station in Xinjiang as an example,the economic analysis is carried out to verify whether the judgment method is reasonable.[Results]The algorithm enhances the accuracy of critical point calculations.Building upon this,an analysis of the overall situation and cost-effectiveness trends of grid parity in China is conducted.The findings suggest that centralized photovoltaic power stations in China can essentially achieve grid parity,with the central regions exhibiting the best economic benefits.[Conclusions]Using critical point analysis to determine if a power station can achieve grid parity will help assess the station’s resilience to risks,assist businesses in making informed decisions to achieve cost reduction and efficiency improvement.
作者
高鑫
王驰中
桂芳旭
陈衡
张锴
张国强
GAO Xin;WANG Chizhong;GUI Fangxu;CHEN Heng;ZHANG Kai;ZHANG Guoqiang(School of Energy Power and Mechanical,North China Electric Power University,Changping District,Beijing 102206,China)
出处
《发电技术》
2025年第5期930-938,共9页
Power Generation Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(52276006)。
关键词
光伏发电
集中式光伏电站
平价上网
临界点
降本增效
经济效益
经济评价流程
photovoltaic power generation
centralized photovoltaic power station
grid parity
critical point
cost reduction and efficiency improvement
economic benefit
economic evaluation process
