摘要
[目的]美国白蛾是我国重要的林业检疫性有害生物,目前最北端已经扩散至我国吉林省公主岭市,最南端扩散至安徽省池州市贵池区,对山西省的林草生态环境构成严重潜在威胁。本研究旨在明确美国白蛾入侵山西省的风险性及其潜在适生分布区。[方法]采用定量分析和定性分析的方法结合林业有害生物风险分析指标体系对美国白蛾入侵山西省的风险性进行评估,同时基于总有效积温法则对美国白蛾在山西省的发生世代数进行推测,最后通过层次分析法和模糊数学综合评判方法对美国白蛾在山西省的潜在适生区进行预测和分析。[结果]研究结果表明:美国白蛾入侵山西省的风险等级为特别危险(R=2.535),各市级的风险综合评价值R在2.3~2.5之间,风险分析等级为特别危险和高度危险。美国白蛾在山西省理论上1年可完成1.34~2.48个世代,且发生世代数随纬度的升高呈现降低的变化趋势;此外,层次分析法结合AcrGIS模型预测发现美国白蛾在山西省的高适生区占全省面积的13.07%,主要集中在运城市西部和临汾市;中适生区占全省面积的27.13%,主要集中在吕梁市和忻州市;低适生区占全省面积的36.25%,主要集中在忻州市和长治市。[结论]研究结果可为山西省对美国白蛾疫情监测和有效防控部署工作提供重要理论依据。
[Objective]Hyphantria cunea(Lepidoptera:Erebidae),is an important quarantine pest in China.It has spread to Gongzhuling City in Jilin Province in the north and Guichi District in Chizhou City in Anhui Province in the south,posing a serious potential threat to the forest and grass ecological environment in Shanxi Province.This study aims to determine the risk of H.cunea invasion and potential habitat areas in Shanxi Province.[Methods]This study used quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis combining with the forestry pest risk analysis index system to assess the risk of the invasion of H.cunea in Shanxi Province.At the same time,based on the law of the total effective cumulative temperature,the number of generations of H.cunea in Shanxi Province was projected.Finally,Furthermore,potential habitat areas for the species are predicted and analyzed using a combination of hierarchical analysis and fuzzy mathematical comprehensive judgment methods.[Results]The results showed that the risk level of the invasion of H.cunea in Shanxi Province was classified as extremely dangerous(R=2.535).The comprehensive evaluation value of the risk at the municipal level ranged from 2.3 to 2.5,with a risk analysis grade of extremely dangerous and highly dangerous.Theoretical projections suggest that H.cunea can complete 1.34–2.48 generations per year in Shanxi,with the number of generations decreasing as latitude increases.Additionally,predictions using the analytic hierarchy process combined with the ArcGIS model show that the high-suitability habitat for H.cunea accounts for 13.07%of the province,primarily in Linfen and western Yuncheng.The medium-suitability habitat covers 27.13%of the province,mainly located in Lvliang and Xinzhou,while low-suitability habitats account for 36.25%,primarily found in Xinzhou and Changzhi.[Conclusion]The results of this study can provide an important theoretical basis for the monitoring of H.cunea epidemic and the deployment of effective prevention and control in Shanxi Province.
作者
郑文芳
范世明
张楠
黄瑞芬
崔绍朋
张志伟
高瑞贺
ZHENG Wen-fang;FAN Shi-ming;ZHANG Nan;HUANG Rui-fen;CUI Shao-peng;ZHANG Zhi-wei;GAO Rui-he(Forestry College,Shanxi Agricultural University,jinzhong 030800,Shanxi,China;National Forestry and Grassland Administration Biological Disaster Control Center,Shenyang 110000,Liaoning,China;Shanxi Dangerous Forest and Grassland Pest Inspection and ldentification Center,Jinzhong 030800,Shanxi,China)
出处
《林业科学研究》
北大核心
2025年第4期76-85,共10页
Forest Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(32401594)
山西省回国留学人员科研资助项目(2023-087)
山西省应用基础研究计划青年科技研究基金(20210302124062)
山西农业大学科技创新基金(2017YJ20)。
关键词
山西省
美国白蛾
风险分析
世代预测
适生区分布
Shanxi Province
Hyphantria cunea
risk analysis
generation prediction
distribution of suitable areas
