摘要
本研究利用1985年、2005年和2023年三期土地利用数据,基于土地利用转移矩阵、土地利用动态度对贵阳市土地利用时空演变特征进行了分析,并结合PLUS模型对研究区2041年土地利用结构进行了多情景模拟。结果表明,贵阳市的土地利用结构以耕地和林地为主,构成区域景观基质;近38年来耕地和林地的转换最为频繁,耕地面积呈减少趋势,林地、草地、水域和建设用地面积呈扩张趋势,裸地面积呈先减少后增加趋势;1985-2005年、2005-2023年两个阶段综合土地利用动态度分别为0.32%和0.34%。模拟结果显示,在自然发展情景下,2041年区域土地利用格局呈现显著变化,耕地面积继续缩小,林地、草地等生态用地及建设用地持续扩张;耕地保护情景下,建设用地持续扩张趋势得到有效遏制,耕地面积下降趋势得到有效扭转,因撂荒形成的林地、草地逐步恢复为耕地。
This study analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use in Guiyang city based on land use data from three years of 1985,2005,and 2023,utilizing land use transfer matrices and land use dynamic degree.Combined with the PLUS model(Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model),multi-scenario simulations of the year 2041 land use structure were conducted for the study area.The results indicate that:(1)The land use structure in Guiyang City is dominated by cultivated land and forest land,forming regional landscape matrix.(2)Over the past 38 years,transitions between cultivated land and forest land occurred most frequently.Cultivated land area showed a decreasing trend,while forest land,grassland,water bodies,and construction land exhibited expansion trends.Bare land area demonstrated an initial decrease followed by an increase.(3)The comprehensive land use dynamic degrees for the periods 1985-2005 and 2005-2023 were 0.32%and 0.34%,respectively.Simulation results show that under the natural development scenario,the 2041 land use pattern will undergo significant changes with continued shrinkage of cultivated land and expansion of ecological land(such as forest land and grassland)and construction land.Under the cultivated land protection scenario,the expansion trend of construction land is effectively curbed,and the declining trend of cultivated land area is effectively reversed,with forest land and grassland to be gradually restored to cultivated land.
作者
吴际通
易利龙
霍达
WU Ji-tong;YI Li-long;HUO Da(Guiyang Forest Chief Scheme Service Center,Guiyang,Guizhou 550003;Guizhou Academy of Forestry,Guiyang,Guizhou 550005)
出处
《陕西林业科技》
2025年第5期128-133,140,共7页
Shaanxi Forest Science and Technology
基金
黔科合支撑[2020]1Y061号。
关键词
土地利用转移矩阵
动态度
PLUS模型
多情景模拟
Land use transition matrices
dynamic degree
PLUS model
multi-scenario simulation
