摘要
为量化广西甘蔗种植阶段的碳排放与碳汇量,并分析其时空变化及驱动因素,本研究基于《广西统计年鉴》和《全国农产品成本收益资料汇编》,采用碳排放因子法和碳固定因子法对广西2003—2022年甘蔗种植的碳排放和碳固定进行量化,并结合STIRPAT模型对碳收支影响因素进行分析。结果表明,广西甘蔗种植的碳汇能力大于其碳排放水平,碳排放量从2003年的132.35万t增加至2013年的244.57万t,随后下降至2022年的160.91万t,碳汇量从2003年的1125.87万t增加到2022年的1601.22万t。化肥施用导致的温室气体碳排放是甘蔗种植过程中主要的碳排放来源,占总排放量的61.25%~72.99%,其中氮肥贡献最大;秸秆焚烧的碳排放占比从2003年的28.18%上升至2022年的32.16%。在空间分布上,碳排放和碳汇主要集中在崇左市、南宁市、来宾市和柳州市。STIRPAT分析显示,化肥施用量、农业技术水平、种植规模和甘蔗产量是影响碳排放与碳汇的关键因素,不同种植规模地区碳排放和碳汇的影响因素存在差异。研究表明,广西甘蔗种植的碳排放与碳汇受化肥施用、农业技术应用和种植规模等多因素的显著影响,广西甘蔗种植具有较高的碳汇水平。
This research aimed to quantify the carbon emissions and carbon sink during the sugarcane cultivation phase in Guangxi,analyzed the spatiotemporal variations and their driving factors.Agricultural budget,including carbon emissions and carbon sinks,was estimated and analyzed using total agricultural inputs,crop residue burning amounts,and crop yield from Guangxi Statistical Database and Compilation of National Agricultural Product Cost-Benefit Data using the emission factor approach and the carbon sequestration parameter method.Based on this,the key factors influencing agricultural carbon budgets were identified using the revised Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population,Affluence and Technology(STIRPAT)model.The study revealed that sugarcane cultivation in Guangxi acted as a net carbon sink,with more carbon being sequestrated than emitted.Carbon emissions rose from 1.3235×10^(6) t in 2003 to a peak of 2.4457×10^(6) t in 2013,before dropping to 1.6091×10^(6) t in 2022.Meanwhile,the carbon sink increased from 1.12587×10^(7) t in 2003 to 1.60122×10^(7) t in 2022.Greenhouse gas emissions in terms of carbon equivalents from fertilizer use,particularly nitrogen fertilizers,were the main source of carbon emissions,contributing between 61.25%and 72.99%of the total.Carbon emissions from straw burning also increased,rising from 28.18%to 32.16%.The regions of Chongzuo,Nanning,Laibin,and Liuzhou were identified as the main areas where carbon emissions and carbon sink were concentrated.The STIRPAT analysis highlighted that fertilizer use,farming technology,planting scale,and sugarcane yield were key factors affecting carbon emissions and carbon sink,with different impacts depending on the size of the cultivation area.Carbon emissions and carbon sink in Guangxi′s sugarcane cultivation were significantly influenced by fertilizer use,farming technology,and the scale of cultivation.Sugarcane cultivation demostrated a high level of carbon sinks in Guangxi.
作者
李淑斌
邓韵
卢旋
李华洋
万远志
LI Shubin;DENG Yun;LU Xuan;LI Huayang;WAN Yuanzhi(Guangxi Research Institute of Metrology&Test,Nanning 530001,China)
出处
《农业环境科学学报》
北大核心
2025年第9期2454-2465,共12页
Journal of Agro-Environment Science
基金
广西科技基地和人才专项(桂科AD21238034)。
关键词
甘蔗
农业碳收支
碳排放
碳汇
STIRPAT模型
sugarcane
agricultural carbon budget
carbon emission
carbon sink
STIRPAT model
