摘要
特朗普新政府执政以来,推动中国台湾问题“国际化”呈降速态势。其主要表现为美国立法“助台”力度减弱、价值观“挺台”声势下降、美国盟伴协同“挺台”后继乏力、美国“助台固盟”动能不足,以及拓展中国台湾“国际空间”议题收缩等方面。特朗普新政府推动中国台湾问题“国际化”降速是多种因素综合作用的结果。其中,特朗普性格特质是核心因素,中国涉台立场与综合国力是重要外部制约因素。同时,美国当前的府会关系、“疑赖论”与“疑美论”持续发酵,也致使中国台湾问题“国际化”降速。这种降速态势,将导致中国台湾“国际能见度”阶段性下降、中国台湾“外交突破”停滞甚至倒退,以及“台独”势力发展受限等。从短期看,特朗普第二任期内中国台湾问题“国际化”的未来走向仍面临不确定因素;从长期看,美国政府仍不会放弃推动中国台湾问题“国际化”。为此,中国应始终保持对美国涉台动向的警觉,并构筑有效应对相关风险的能力。
Since the new Trump administration took office,the U.S.efforts to"internationalize"the Taiwan question have slowed down.This is mainly manifested in the weakening of the U.S.legislative"support for Taiwan",the decline in the momentum of value-based"support for Taiwan",the lack of follow-up from the U.S.allies in"supporting Taiwan",insufficient momentum in the U.S.efforts to"strengthen Taiwan and solidate the allies",and the contraction of issues related to expanding Taiwan's so-called international space.The slowdown in promoting the"internationalization"of the Taiwan question by the second Trump administration since its inauguration is the result of multiple factors working together.Among them,Trump's personality traits are the core factor,while China's stance on the Taiwan affairs and its comprehensive national strength are important external constraints.At the same time,the current state of executive-legislative relations in the U.S.,the ongoing fermentation of"distrusting Lai Ching-te"and"distrusting America",also contribute to the slowdown of the"internationalization"of the Taiwan question.This slowdown will lead to a temporary decrease in Taiwan's alleged international visibility,stagnation or even regression in Taiwan's"diplomatic breakthroughs",and restrictions on the development of pro-"independence"forces.In the short term,the future direction of promoting the"internationalization"of the Taiwan question during Trump's second term still faces uncertainties;in the long term,the U.S.government is not likely to give up promoting the"internationalization"of the Taiwan question.Therefore,China should always remain vigilant about the U.S.moves regarding Taiwan and build effective capabilities to respond to related risks.
作者
周文星
葛思晨
ZHOU Wenxing;GE Sichen(School of International Studies,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,Jiangsu,China)
出处
《闽台关系研究》
2025年第3期2-15,共14页
Studies on Fujian-Taiwan Relations
基金
江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重大项目(2025SJZD020)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助课题(2025300108)。
关键词
特朗普新政府
中国台湾问题
“国际化”
中美关系
the new Trump administration
the Taiwan question
internationalization
China-U.S.relations
