摘要
在利用人工智能技术推动经济社会发展的同时,保障劳动者的权益与公平,避免收入两极分化,对实现共同富裕具有重要意义。本文通过拓展工作任务模型,从理论上分析了人工智能冲击的工资极化作用以及教育扩张对该过程的影响,并利用中国家庭追踪调查数据,基于职业被人工智能技术替代可能性和地区人工智能发展水平的差异,构建广义双重差分模型进行实证检验。研究表明:人工智能冲击加剧了不同职业之间的收入差距,促进了工资极化的产生。这一作用的产生机制包括人工智能对常规型任务工作的替代效应、对不同职业有差异的生产率提升效应以及阻碍中等收入群体职业转换的技术鸿沟效应。进一步分析表明,教育的持续扩张未能缩小职业间的收入差距,过度的教育扩张可能反而放大人工智能的工资极化作用。本文为人工智能技术变革背景下如何协同就业与教育政策,改善劳动者收入分配状况提供了启示。
Balancing the promotion of economic and social development through artificial intelligence(AI)technologies with safeguarding workers’rights and equity,while avoiding income polarization,is critical to achieving common prosperity.This paper extends the task-based model to analyze the wage polarization effects of AI shocks and the influence of educational expansion on this process theoretically.Using data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),a generalized difference-in-differences model is constructed by incorporating variations in the susceptibility of occupations to AI substitution and differences in regional AI development levels to conduct empirical analysis.The findings reveal that AI shocks exacerbate income disparities between occupations,contributing to wage polarization.The mechanisms driving this effect include AI’s substitution of routine task jobs,its uneven productivity-enhancing effects across occupations,and the technological barriers that hinder upward mobility for middle-income groups through occupational shifts.Further analysis indicates that continued educational expansion has not fostered income equity across occupations.On the contrary,excessive expansion of education may amplify the wage polarization effects induced by AI.This study offers insights into how employment and education policies can be coordinated to improve income distribution among workers in the context of technological changes driven by AI.
作者
李钧宇
翟少轩
袁持平
Li Junyu;Zhai Shaoxuan;Yuan Chiping(Institute of Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao Development Studies,Sun Yat-sen University;Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information,Guangdong Academy of Agriculture Science)
出处
《经济评论》
北大核心
2025年第5期99-118,共20页
Economic Review
基金
广东省哲学社会科学规划项目“城乡融合发展背景下数实融合驱动县域产业升级的机理与效应研究”(GD25YYJ34)的资助。
关键词
人工智能
工资极化
教育扩张
职业替代
Artificial Intelligence
Wage Polarization
Education Expansion
Occupational Substitution
