摘要
为解决城市洪涝灾害应急管理效能评价中决策者在风险条件下的偏好依赖与损失规避问题,构建融合决策者风险偏好的改进灰色群决策模型,首先,提出一种基于群体意见一致性和差异性的决策者权重确定方法,弥补传统方法在集成个体信息时忽略决策者专业背景、经验和个人偏好的差异问题;然后,提出改进的交互式多准则决策(TODIM)方法,降低在计算优势度时决策者面对风险的损失夸大问题;最后,将模型应用于城市洪涝灾害应急管理方案效能评价,验证所提方法的有效性。结果表明:在综合考虑应急救援效率、防灾减灾效果、资源利用效率和应急管理成本的情况下,应急响应和救援体系完善方案优于早期预警与监测系统建设方案和信息化技术支持方案,且这一最优应急方案在81.82%的情景中维持稳健。
To address the issues of preference dependence and loss aversion of decision makers under risk conditions in the evaluation of urban flood disaster emergency management efficiency,an improved grey group decision-making model integrating the risk preference of decision-makers was constructed.Firstly,a decision-maker weight determination method based on group consensus and difference was proposed,which overcame the limitation of traditional method that ignored differences of decision-maker's professional background,experience and personal preference when integrating individual information.Then,the TODIM method was proposed to reduce the problem of loss overestimation faced by decision makers under risk when calculating dominance.Finally,the model was applied to the efficiency evaluation of urban flood disaster emergency management schemes,which verified its effectiveness.The results show that the scheme of improving the emergency response and rescue system is superior to both the early warning and monitoring system construction scheme and information technology support scheme,when comprehensively considering emergency rescue efficiency,disaster prevention and mitigation effect,resource utilization efficiency and emergency management cost.Moreover,this optimal emergency scheme remains robust in 81.82%of the scenarios.
作者
孙慧芳
陈杨
毛文鑫
SUN Huifang;CHEN Yang;MAO Wenxin(School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Henan University,Kaifeng Henan 475004,China;China IPPR International Engineering CO.,Ltd.,Beijing 100089,China;Business School,Henan University,Kaifeng Henan 475004,China)
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
北大核心
2025年第9期220-227,共8页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(72304087)
国家社会科学基金资助(25CJY009)
教育部人文社科青年项目(24YJC630184)
河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2023CSH028)。
关键词
城市洪涝灾害
应急管理效能
灰色群决策
风险偏好
交互式多准则决策(TODIM)
urban flood disaster
emergency management efficiency
grey group decision-making
risk preference
improved interactive multi-criteria decision-making(TODIM)
