摘要
为进行设计阶段寒冷地区教育建筑运行碳排放预测及优化,按照节能标准要求,结合教育建筑运行特点,基于北京实际教育建筑设计图纸建立模型并进行运行阶段供暖、空调及照明碳排放量模拟计算。采用SPSS分析软件对教育建筑碳排放计算结果进行回归分析,通过建立各因素散点图并进行线性相关研究,确定以体形系数、建筑面积、建筑高度为自变量,建筑总碳排放为因变量,建立教育建筑的运行碳排放多元线性回归预测模型。经对比分析,建筑冷热负荷分布规律与室外温度变化趋势相符,碳排放模拟计算结果及回归模型同时满足统计学及实际工程碳排放预测精度的要求,可为教育建筑规划及方案阶段碳排放预测提供支撑。
In order to predict and optimize the carbon emissions of educational buildings in cold area during the design stage,this paper uses the actual design drawings of educational buildings in Beijing to establish models.The carbon emissions of heating,air conditioning and lighting in the operation stage are simulated,based on the requirements of energy-saving standards and the operation characteristics of educational buildings.SPSS analysis software is used to fit the linear regression of carbon emissions of educational buildings.By establishing the scatter plot of each factor and conducting linear correlation research,the multiple linear regression prediction model of operating carbon emissions of educational buildings is established with body shape coefficient,building area and building height as independent variables while total building carbon emissions as dependent variables.It has been verified that the distribution of cooling and heating loads in buildings is consistent with the trend of outdoor temperature.And the regression model meets the requirements of both statistical and actual engineering carbon emission prediction accuracy,and can provide support for the prediction of carbon emissions in the planning and program stage of educational buildings.
作者
康皓
郝楠
朱峰磊
张宏葛
杨焕
KANG Hao;HAO Nan;ZHU Fenglei;ZHANG Hongge;YANG Huan(China Academy of Building Research,Beijing 100013,China)
出处
《建筑节能(中英文)》
2025年第10期123-127,136,共6页
Building Energy Efficiency
基金
中国建筑科学研究院有限公司青年科研基金资助项目“建立碳排放因子知识库及严寒寒冷地区简化算法数据模型研究”(20220122331030002)
国家重点研发计划资助项目“城镇可持续发展关键技术与装备”(2023YFC3807700)。
关键词
教育建筑
碳排放预测
线性回归
寒冷地区
educational buildings
carbon emission prediction
linear regression
cold regions
