摘要
目的采用多模型集成预测我国红芪潜在适生区分布及影响其分布的主要环境因子。方法基于整合多源生物地理数据构建的物种分布数据库获取119个地理样点数据,结合19个生物气候因子和地形因子,运用Biomod23.5-1软件集成建模平台融合广义线性模型、梯度提升机及随机森林等6种算法构建物种分布模型。通过地理信息系统空间分析方法,定量评估当前气候条件及未来不同气候情景下红芪的适生区分布特征,并解析影响其分布的主要环境因子。结果集成模型的综合预测性能卓越,真实技巧统计量和受试者工作特征曲线下面积值分别为0.924和0.992,其中海拔、坡度、坡向、平均气温日较差、等温性、气温季节性变动系数、最冷月最低气温、年降水量、最干月降水量和降水季节性变异系数是影响红芪分布的主要环境因子。当前气候条件下,红芪的高适生区集中分布于甘肃省陇南市和定西市,面积约为26.17×10^(4) km^(2)。未来气候情景下其适生区逐步向西北部低气温带迁移,面积呈大幅度缩减趋势。结论本研究构建的我国红芪适生区预测模型可为红芪种质资源保护及可持续利用提供依据,为药用植物的生态适应性研究提供方法学参考。
Objective To use multiple model integration to predict the potential distribution of suitable areas for Hedysari Radix in China and the main environmental factors affecting its distribution.Methods Based on 119 geographical distribution points obtained from species distribution databases,and incorporating 19 bioclimatic and topographic factors,a species distribution model was constructed using the Biomod2 software package 3.5-1 version ensemble modeling platform,integrating six algorithms including generalized linear model,gradient boosting machine,random forest,and others.Geographic information system spatial analysis methods were used to quantitatively assess the distribution characteristics of suitable habitats of Hedysari Radix under current climate conditions and under future climate scenarios,while identifying the primary environmental drivers of its distribution.Results The ensemble model showed significantly superior predictive performance.TSS value and AUC value were 0.924 and 0.992,respectively.Key environmental factors significantly influencing the distribution of Hedysari Radix included slope,aspect,daily average temperature difference,isothermity,seasonal variation coefficient of temperature,lowest temperature in the coldest month,annual precipitation,driest month precipitation,and seasonal variation coefficient of precipitation.Under current climate conditions,suitable habitats for Hedysari Radix were primarily concentrated in the regions of Longnan and Dingxi in Gansu Province,covering an area of approximately 26.17×10^(4) km^(2).Under future climate scenarios,suitable habitats will gradually shift toward the northwest into lower temperature zones,with a significant reduction in area.Conclusion The habitat suitability model developed in this study provides a basis for the conservation and sustainable utilization of Hedysari Radix genetic resources,while also offering a methodological reference for ecological adaptability studies of medicinal plants.
作者
郭丽嵘
何英梅
马潇
杨鹏伟
刘东升
倪琳
GUO Lirong;HE Yingmei;MA Xiao;YANG Pengwei;LIU Dongsheng;NI Lin(Gansu Institute for Drug Control,State Drug Administration-Key Laboratory of Quality Control of Chinese Medicinal Materials and Decoction Pieces,Gansu Provincial Engineering Laboratory of Chinese Medicine and Tibetan Medicine Testing and Testing Technology,Gansu Provincial Engineering Technology Research Center of Quality and Safety Evaluation of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Lanzhou 730070,China)
出处
《中国中医药信息杂志》
2025年第10期1-6,共6页
Chinese Journal of Information on Traditional Chinese Medicine
基金
甘肃省药品科研项目(2023GSMPA008、2022GSMPA0061、2023GSMPA065)。
关键词
红芪
Biomod2
气候变化
适生区预测
Hedysari Radix
Biomod2
climate change
prediction of suitable habitats
