摘要
【目的】预测当前及未来气候情景下黑刺粉虱在中国的适生分布范围及适生等级,分析环境变量对其分布的影响,明确主导气候因子,为茶园黑刺粉虱的监测预警和科学防控提供理论依据和实践指导。【方法】基于MaxEnt模型与ArcGIS软件,预测黑刺粉虱的适生分布范围及其适生程度,并采用刀切法(Jackknife)评估影响其潜在分布的主要环境变量。【结果】MaxEnt模型预测的曲线下面积AUC(area under curve,AUC)值为0.894,表明模型精度较高,预测结果可靠。利用刀切法分析显示,影响黑刺粉虱潜在分布的主要环境变量为年平均温(bio1)、年平均降水量(bio12)和最干月份降水量(bio14)。在当前及未来气候情景下,黑刺粉虱的适生区广泛分布于我国大部分省份,其中高适生区主要集中在我国秦岭-淮河以南地区,适生程度由南向北逐渐递减。当前黑刺粉虱总适生区面积为277.49万km^(2),占国土面积的28.91%;其中高适生区面积占比最大,为116.21万km^(2),占总适生区面积的41.88%。【结论】在未来多种气候情景下,黑刺粉虱在我国的分布范围呈现北移趋势,适生面积略有增加,但总体分布范围和适生程度未发生明显变化,表现出较强的稳定性。鉴于黑刺粉虱在中国适生区范围广泛,建议加强监测预警和区域防控,以保障茶叶安全生产和品质提升。
【Objective】Potential distribution of Aleurocanthus spiniferus in China under the changing climatic conditions was analyzed to aid monitoring the pest movement,issuing early warning,implementing preventive measures,and controlling the infestation at tea plantations.【Methods】The MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software were employed to predict the areas and conditions of the spread of A.spiniferus in China.The Jackknife method was used to calculate the main environmental variables affecting the pest distribution.【Results】The AUC of the MaxEnt model prediction was highly reliable at 0.894.The major environmental variables affecting the potential distribution of A.spiniferus calculated by Jackknife were the annual average temperature(bio1),annual average precipitation(bio12),and precipitation in the driest month(bio14).Populations of A.spiniferus were likely to be found in most provinces of China under the perceivable scenarios on climate.The highly suitable habitats for the pests were in the provinces south of the Huaihe River in Mt.Qinling with a gradually decreasing trend northward in the region.At present,the total area in China suitable for spread of A.spiniferus was 2.7749 million km^(2),which is 27.43%of the country’s entirety.Of which,1.1621 million km^(2) was highly suitable,which accounted for 41.88%of the total national land mass.【Conclusion】The foreseeable changes on climate might shift the A.spiniferus populations to the most part of China northward with a minute increase on the“suitable area”.In general,the natural distribution of the pests appeared to be stable in long-term.Nonetheless,to closely monitor the movement for early warning,timely prevention,and effective control on the pest was indispensable to avoid major infestation on tea plants.
作者
陈李林
勒尔阿都
胡海琴
姜明鑫
钟文玉
林昌进
贺思语
杨永华
蔡立君
CHEN Lilin;LEER Adu;HU Haiqin;JIANG Mingxin;ZHONG Wenyu;LIN Changjin;HE Siyu;YANG Yonghua;CAI Lijun(Anxi College of Tea Science(College of Digital Economy),Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Quanzhou,Fujian 362406,China;State Key Laboratory of Agricultural and Forestry Biosecurity/College of Plant Protection,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350002,China;College of Resources and Environment,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350002,China;Ningde Institute of Agricultural Sciences,Fu’an,Fujian 355000,China)
出处
《福建农业学报》
北大核心
2025年第7期694-705,共12页
Fujian Journal of Agricultural Sciences
基金
福建省科技计划农业引导性项目(2024N0053)
福建省科技计划对外合作项目(2022I0009)
南平市科技特派员专项(N2023T011)。
关键词
气候变化
MaxEnt模型
适生性
环境变量
黑刺粉虱
climate change
MaxEnt model
habitat suitability
environment variables
Aleurocanthus spiniferus
