摘要
通过论证和构建气象灾害应急防御中气象服务的理论逻辑和策略模型,该文旨在优化底层框架以提升应急减灾效能。首先基于实际业务经验,发现强台风较弱台风更易触发启动高级别应急响应,且预警提前量更大,呈现马太效应,但随着递进式服务策略实施,该现象随年际呈消减,台风“杜苏芮”和“海葵”案例可对其验证。从现代决策理论视角出发,文章指出应急减灾具有有限理性的客观属性,构建递进式服务理论模型,从信息源、决策者和决策点三个维度有效对抗气象防灾减灾过程中的累积状态偏见,以消减马太效应、减少决策误差。
To aim at exploring the bottom framework of meteorological services in meteorological disaster prevention,a theoretical model and the approaches on improving efficiency of emergency management and disaster mitigation have been proved and built.Based on practical experiences,it is found that the higher levels emergency response and earlier advanced warnings happened more in strong landing-typhoon cases than the weak cases,which manifests the Matthew Effect on the meteorological disaster prevention and reduction is obvious.Besides,on the interannual variations of the highest level of emergency response and the time of advanced warnings,the Matthew Effect for the difference of landing-typhoons’intensity has shown a reduction phenomenon with the transformation of meteorological service concepts and the implementation of progressive service strategies.The meteorological disaster prevention and reduction processes of typhoons Doksuri and Haikui support the reduction role of progressive services.Moreover,with the concept of Bounded Rationality from Modern Decision Theory,it is proved that Bounded Rationality exists objectively in emergency management and disaster mitigation.In conclusion,a theoretical model of meteorological decision-making service has been built,which shows there are 3 dimensions of information sources,decision-makers and decision points playing important roles in progressive service strategies to achieve the reduction of the Matthew Effect.
作者
邵颖斌
陈俊哲
朱艳萍
陈思
江晓南
韩美
杨琨
SHAO Yingbin;CHEN Junzhe;ZHU Yanping;CHEN Si;JIANG Xiaonan;HAN Mei;YANG Kun(Fujian Province Meteorological Observatory,Fuzhou 350008,China;Key Laboratory of Straits Severe Weather,China Meteorological Administration,Fuzhou 350008,China;School of Ocean and Meteorology,Guangdong Ocean University,Zhanjiang 524088,China;Fujian Province Straits Meteorological Institute,Fuzhou 350008,China;Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Fuzhou 350008,China;National Mete-orological Center,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《灾害学》
北大核心
2025年第4期77-83,共7页
Journal of Catastrophology
基金
中国气象局创新发展专项“基于多源大数据的精细化动态化气象灾害风险预估技术”(CXFZ2024J073)
中国气象局决策气象服务专项“精细化台风灾害综合风险预估技术”(2024JCZX009)
福建省气象局软科学研究项目“基于知识与数据协同驱动的智能决策气象服务范式转变研究”(2502)。
关键词
应急减灾
递进式决策气象服务
有限理性
马太效应
对抗偏见
emergency management and disaster mitigation
progressive meteorological decision-making services
Bounded Rationality
Matthew Effect
confronting prejudice
