摘要
[目的]内蒙古极端气温事件和极端降水事件频繁发生,研究极端气温和降水事件以及极端气候事件与驱动因子的响应关系,为应对内蒙古气候变化提供参考。[方法]基于内蒙古104个气象站逐日最高气温、最低气温、降水量等气象观测数据,选取了25个极端气候指数,利用线性回归、M-K趋势检验、Spearman相关分析和Mantel test等方法进行分析。[结果]内蒙古总体呈现显著的变暖趋势,1960—2021年极端高温指数TX90p、TN90p、TR、TXx、TNx和WSDI分别以0.140 d/a、0.211 d/a、0.374 d/a、0.137℃/a、0.024℃/a、0.10 d/a的速率呈显著增加趋势。极端低温指数TX10p、TN10p、FD、ID和CSDI则分别以-0.10,-0.23,-0.37,-0.22,0.10 d/a的速率显著减少。极端高温从西向东逐渐减少,极端低温则相反。1960—2021年极端降水呈增加趋势,PRCPTOT、R95P、R99P、SDII、R10,R20,R25分别以0.331 mm/a、0.087 mm/a、0.022 mm/a、0.002 mm/d/a、0.014 mm/a、0.005 mm/a和0.003 mm/a的速率显著增加。CWD和CDD分别以-0.001 d/a和-0.203 d/a的速率呈减少趋势。东部地区和中部地区的极端降水相对较多,而西部地区则相对较少。极端降水指数的变化趋势呈现“东快西慢”的特征。1960—2021年内蒙古整体呈现气候暖湿化现象,干旱期明显缩短。大西洋年代际振荡(AMO)和全球海陆平均温度(GMLOT)对极端气温和降水事件的贡献率较大,均达到p<0.001的显著水平。[结论] 1960—2021年内蒙古整体呈现气候暖湿化现象,极端高温指数和极端降水指数显著增加,且极端高温从西向东逐渐减少,极端降水从西向东逐渐增加,极端低温指数显著减少,干旱期明显缩短,大西洋年代际振荡(AMO)和全球海陆平均温度(GMLOT)对极端气温和降水事件的影响显著。
[Objective]The frequent occurrence of extreme temperature and precipitation events in Inner Mongolia highlights the need to investigate these extreme events and their responses to the driving factors,aiming to provide a reference for addressing climate change in the region.[Methods]Based on the meteorological observation data from 104 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia,including maximum temperature,minimum temperature,and precipitation,25 extreme climate indices were selected.Linear regression,Mann-Kendall(M-K)trend tests,Spearman correlation analysis,and Mantel tests were used.[Results]A significant overall warming trend was observed across Inner Mongolia.From 1960 to 2021,the extreme high temperature indices,TX90 p,TN90 p,TR,TXx,TNx,and WSDI significantly increased at rates of 0.140 d/a,0.211 d/a,0.374 d/a,0.137℃/a,0.024℃/a and 0.10 d/a,respectively.The extreme low temperature indices TX10p,TN10p,FD,ID and CSDI significantly decreased at rates of-0.10 d/a,-0.23 d/a,-0.37 d/a,-0.22 d/a,and-0.10 d/a,respectively.The extreme high temperature gradually decreased from west to east,while the extreme low temperature showed the opposite pattern.From 1960 to 2021,the extreme precipitation occurrence showed an increasing trend.The indices PRCPTOT,R95P,R99P,SDII,R10,R20,and R25 significantly increased at rates of 0.331 mm/a,0.087 mm/a,0.022 mm/a,0.002 mm/d/a,0.014 mm/a,0.005 mm/a,and 0.003 mm/a,respectively.The indices of continuous wet days(CWD)and continuous dry days(CDD)decreased at rates of-0.001 d/a and-0.203 d/a,respectively.Extreme precipitation was relatively abundant in the eastern and central regions,but relatively scarce in the western regions.The variation trend of extreme precipitation indices was faster in the east and slower in the west.From 1960 to 2021,Inner Mongolia exhibited an overall trend of climatic warming and wetting,with a significant shortening of drought periods.The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO)and global mean land-ocean temperature(GMLOT)contributed significantly to extreme temperature and precipitation events,with both reaching a statistically significant level of p<0.001.[Conclusion]From 1960 to 2021,Inner Mongolia showed an overall trend of climate warming and wetting,with extreme high temperature and extreme precipitation indices showing significant increases.Specifically,the extreme high temperature exhibited a gradual decrease from west to east,while extreme precipitation gradually increased from west to east.Extreme low temperature indices significantly decreased,and drought periods were notably shortened.The AMO and GMLOT had significant impacts on extreme temperature and precipitation events.
作者
徐帆
马龙
黄星
陈阳
Xu Fan;Ma Long;Huang Xing;Chen Yang(College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Inner Mongolia Agricultural University,Hohhot 010018,China;Inner Mongolia Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology and High Efficient Utilization of Water Resources,Hohhot 010018,China)
出处
《水土保持研究》
北大核心
2025年第6期225-235,共11页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家重点研发项目“黄河几字弯区地下水—河湖系统保护与产业适水调控关键技术及应用示范”(2023YFC3206500)
国家自然科学基金(52409029)。
关键词
内蒙古
极端气候指数
时空特征
气候驱动因子
Inner Mongolia
extreme climate index
spatiotemporal characteristics
climate driving factors
