摘要
气候变化对自然灾害的影响日益加剧,灾害活动出现新特点和新趋势,灾害风险急剧增加,防灾减灾面临新的挑战。文中从气候驱动因子跨圈层致灾特征、灾害活动的海-陆时空联动特性等角度分析了气候驱动下自然灾害的发生机制与活动特征,阐述了气候变化灾害风险出现的新常态与新挑战,探讨了自然灾害风险管理的成效与局限。面对灾害风险的新态势与新挑战,为了加强灾害风险防范的科技支撑能力,提出了5个关键科学问题:气候变化对圈层过程的影响及致灾机制、极端天气驱动的巨灾预测与风险演化、巨灾对社会经济系统影响机制与风险评估、基于人工智能的自适应灾害风险动态防控体系、适应气候变化的韧性社会建设理论。
The impacts of climate change on natural disasters are intensifying,giving rise to new characteristics and trends in disaster activities,and a significant increase in disaster risks.Disaster prevention and mitigation efforts now face unprecedented challenges.This paper examines the mechanisms and activity patterns of natural disasters under climate-driven factors,focusing on cross-sphere disaster characteristics and the spatiotemporal ocean-land linkages of disaster activities.It highlights the“new normal”and challenges of disaster risks in the context of climate change and evaluates the effectiveness and limitations of current disaster risk management strategies.To enhance the scientific and technological capabilities for disaster risk prevention,this paper proposes five key scientific questions:(1)The impacts of climate change on sphere processes and their disaster-inducing mechanisms;(2)Prediction and risk evolution of catastrophic events driven by extreme weather;(3)Mechanisms and risk assessments of major disasters on socio-economic systems;(4)AI-driven adaptive framework for dynamic disaster risk management;(5)Theoretical frameworks for building resilient societies to adapt to climate change.
作者
崔鹏
王岩
张国涛
张正涛
雷雨
王昊
王姣
郝建盛
朱宏
CUI Peng;WANG Yan;ZHANG Guo-Tao;ZHANG Zheng-Tao;LEI Yu;WANG Hao;WANG Jiao;HAO Jian-Sheng;ZHU Hong(Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Surface Processes,Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu 610299,China;School of National Safety and Emergency Management,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)
出处
《气候变化研究进展》
北大核心
2025年第4期449-460,共12页
Climate Change Research
基金
国家自然科学面上基金项目(42371085)
国家自然科学青年基金项目(42201086)
第二次青藏高原科学考察研究:综合灾害风险评价与防御(2019QZKK0906)
国家自然科学基金项目专项项目:前沿战略研究项目(42242103)。
关键词
气候变化
自然灾害
风险防范
灾害演化
气候适应
Climate change
Natural disasters
Risk prevention
Disaster evolution
Climate adaptation
