摘要
为做好区域耕地土壤有机碳评价及分析,推进农业可持续发展。以广东省连州市为研究区域,耕地表层土壤有机碳为研究对象,结合土壤实测数据与多维地理信息,运用组合模型算法和反硝化-分解(DNCD,denitrification-decomposition)模型,模拟连州耕地表层土壤有机碳密度(SOCD,soil organic carbon density)的时空变化并对其固碳潜力进行分析。结果显示,融合遥感因子、地形因子等数据的SA-LSTM-XGB组合算法的预测效果最佳,其决定系数R2为0.646。基于该模型预测的连州市耕地表层SOCD从2007年的4.73 kg/m2降至2019年的3.35 kg/m^(2)。DNDC模型模拟结果显示,若不改变田间管理模式,2019—2035年连州市0~50 cm深度的耕地整体有机碳储量(SOCS,soil organic carbon storage)将以年均3.32×10^(7)kg的速度持续下降;而通过改善田间管理方式,SOCS到2035年可增加1.48×10^(9)~2.52×10^(9)kg。
Investigating the trends and potential for carbon sequestration in the organic carbon storage of cultivated land topsoil can guide agricultural production management.This study focuses on Lianzhou,integrating measured soil data with multi-dimensional geographic information to investigate.It employs a combined model algorithm and the DNDC(denitrification-decomposition)model to simulate and analyze the spatio-temporal variations in soil organic carbon density and carbon sequestration potential in the topsoil.The results indicate that the SA-LSTM-XGB combination algorithm,which integrates remote sensing and terrain factors,yields the best predictive performance,with a determination coefficient R2 of 0.646.According to the model,the soil organic carbon density of surface farmland in Lianzhou decreased from 4.73 kg/m2 in 2007 to 3.35 kg/m^(2) in 2019.Simulations using the DNDC model suggest that if field management practices remain unchanged,the overall organic carbon storage in the top 50 cm of cultivated land in Lianzhou will continue to decline at an annual average rate of 3.32×10^(7) kg from 2019 to 2035.However,with improved field management practices,the soil organic carbon in the top 50 cm of cultivated land in Lianzhou could increase by between 1.48×10^(9) and 2.52×10^(9) kg by 2035.
作者
张玉洁
沈文杰
邹天祥
胡炎凤
涂俊喜
焦琳淳
李宇航
梁志鹏
范东升
ZHANG Yujie;SHEN Wenjie;ZOU Tianxiang;HU Yanfeng;TU Junxi;JIAO Linchun;LI Yuhang;LIANG Zhipeng;FAN Dongsheng(School of Earth Science and Engineering,Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai 519000,China;Guangdong Key Laboratory of Geological Processes and Mineral Resources Exploration/Guangdong Key Laboratory of Geodynamics and Geological Hazards,Zhuhai 519000,China;Earth Environment and Earth Resources Research Center,Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai 519000,China;Danzhou Comprehensive Administrative Law Enforcement Bureau,Danzhou 571700,China;Zhuhai No.16 Middle School,Zhuhai 519000,China;China National Tobacco Corporation Guangxi Corporation,Nanning 530022,China)
出处
《中山大学学报(自然科学版)(中英文)》
北大核心
2025年第5期116-124,共9页
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni
基金
国家自然科学基金-广东联合基金(U1911202)
国家重点研发计划(2022YFF0801201)
中国烟草总公司广西壮族自治区公司科技计划项目(202145000024005)。
关键词
土壤有机碳
固碳潜力
DNDC模型
连州
soil organic carbon
carbon sequestration potential
DNDC model
Lianzhou
