摘要
提振消费在全面扩大内需中占据突出地位。随着中国经济发展水平的提高,服务消费对经济发展的作用越来越重要。本文研究发现:随着中国人均国内生产总值不断提高,宏观需求结构以内需为主导,消费与投资比重失衡局面逐步改善,消费结构向服务消费比重持续提升的方向优化升级;中国服务消费主要由生存型服务消费和发展型服务消费构成,居民是服务消费最重要的主体,政府在发展型服务消费中占有重要地位。与同阶段国际经验相比,中国生存型服务消费不足,发展型服务消费与国际水平基本相当;“十五五”时期,中国服务消费在宏观需求中的比重有望达到31.99%,能够起到有效扩大内需的作用。未来进一步扩大消费应着力挖掘服务消费潜力,通过居民和政府两类消费主体协同发力促进服务消费需求扩张,以满足人民日益增长的美好生活需要为目标持续强化服务消费供给。
China is currently accelerating the construction of a new pattern of development,in which expanding domestic demand serves as the strategic foundation,and boosting consumption is a key driver for comprehensive domestic demand expansion.As China’s economic development level improves,service consumption plays an increasingly important role in economic growth.However,existing literature has paid insufficient attention to accurately positioning the role of service consumption in policies aimed at expanding domestic demand.This study utilizes the OECD Input-Output Tables to analyze the dynamic evolution of China’s service consumption demand structure and summarizes general patterns of service consumption structural changes across different stages of economic development.Furthermore,it forecasts the structure of service consumption and its economic effects during China’s 15th Five-Year Plan period.The findings are as follows.First,as China’s per capita GDP reached USD 10,000,the macroeconomic demand structure became increasingly dominated by domestic demand,with a gradual reduction in the imbalance between consumption and investment.Second,international experience from countries with per capita GDP between USD 10,000 and USD 50,000 shows that service consumption gradually dominates domestic demand.Subsistence and developmental service consumption are the main components,with subsistence service consumption experiencing slight growth before stabilizing,while developmental and enjoyment-oriented service consumption continue to grow.In developmental service consumption,the government’s share remains higher than that of households over the long term.Third,based on international experience and under the stimulus of various policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption,the share of service consumption in China’s macroeconomic demand is expected to reach 31.99% during the 15th Five-Year Plan period,effectively contributing to domestic demand expansion.Moreover,as the macroeconomic demand structure shifts toward a higher share of service consumption,the economic effects are projected to be substantial.Compared to previous studies,this paper makes three main contributions.First,it distinguishes between households and the government as two types of consumers in final demand,enabling an analysis of the roles of different consumer groups and situating service consumption within the national accounting framework.Second,the long-term and consistent global input-output tables provide data based on uniform statistical standards for summarizing international patterns of service consumption development,avoiding comparability issues arising from differences in national statistical calibers.Third,the sectoral classification in the input-output tables offers a detailed categorization of service goods,providing high-quality data for research on service consumption.
作者
田野
TIAN Ye(National Academy of Economic Strategy,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100006,China)
出处
《东北财经大学学报》
2025年第5期36-46,共11页
Journal of Dongbei University of Finance and Economics
基金
中国社会科学院青年中心调研项目“做强国内大循环背景下服务消费对我国经济增长的贡献测度、‘十五五’预测与政策研究”(2026QNZX015)。
关键词
服务消费
扩大内需
提振消费
需求结构
国际经验
service consumption
expand domestic demand
boost consumption
demand structure
international experience
