摘要
地质灾害受自然与人文因素共同作用,直接危害人民的生命和财产安全,探究地质灾害风险时空变化规律及其发育机制,完善防灾减灾措施,具有重大意义。该文从自然和人文角度,选择地形地貌、降雨和社会经济等31个因子,基于风险四要素理论,采用层次分析法、主成分分析法、信息量模型、熵值法和冷热点分析等方法,选取川西地区开展地质灾害风险变化研究,并结合障碍度模型探究各因子对研究区地质灾害风险的影响程度。结果表明:①2007—2022年间研究区地质灾害风险等级整体呈西高东低分布,康定市和马尔康市为常年冷点集中分布区;②极低与低风险等级面积分别增加8871.1 km^(2)和12478.6 km^(2),占比增速分别为1.056%/a和1.485%/a,高和极高风险等级面积分别减少10127.8 km^(2)和9880.1 km^(2),占比增速分别为-1.206%/a和-1.177%/a;③各因子对风险等级的影响程度具有时间异质性,主要障碍因素(障碍度>5%)集中在危险性和防灾减灾指标方面,降雨、地形地貌与医疗资源等相关因子对地质灾害风险的贡献较大。
Geological disasters,influenced by natural and human factors,directly threaten the safety of people’s lives and property.Exploring the spatiotemporal variations and development mechanisms of geological disaster risk can enhance disaster prevention and mitigation.This study examined 31 factors such as topography,rainfall,and social economy from the perspectives of nature and humanity.Based on the four-factor risk theory,this study investigated the variations of geological disaster risk in the western Sichuan region using methods like the analytic hierarchy process,principal component analysis,information value model,entropy weight method,and hot/cold spot analysis.Employing the obstacle degree model,this study explored the degrees of influence of various factors on geological disaster risk in the western Sichuan region.The results indicate that from 2007 to 2022,the geological disaster risk in the western Sichuan region was generally characterized by higher levels in the west and lower levels in the east.Kangding and Maerkang were the concentrated distribution areas of perennial cold spots.The area of extremely low and low risk levels increased by 8871.1 km^(2) and 12478.6 km^(2) respectively at growth rates of 1.056%/a and 1.485%/a respectively.The area of high and extremely high risk levels decreased by 10127.8 km^(2) and 9880.1 km^(2) respectively at growth rates of-0.02484 km^(2)/a.The degrees of influence of various factors on risk levels exhibited temporal heterogeneity.The dominant obstacle factors(obstacle degree:above 5%)were concentrated in risk and disaster prevention and mitigation indicators.Factors including rainfall,topography,and medical resources contributed significantly to geological disaster risk.
作者
杨衡钧
杨鑫
周雄
YANG Hengjun;YANG Xin;ZHOU Xiong(College of Geography and Planning,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,China;Key Laboratory of Earth Exploration and Information Techniques,Ministry of Education,Chengdu 610059,China;Institute of Multipurpose Utilization of Mineral Resources,Chinese Academy of Geological Science,Chengdu 610041,China)
出处
《自然资源遥感》
北大核心
2025年第4期140-151,共12页
Remote Sensing for Natural Resources
基金
中国地质调查局地质调查项目“四川省金川-马尔康-壤塘地区锂等稀有金属矿产调查评价”(编号:DD20242002)资助。
关键词
风险评价
地质灾害
障碍度
冷热点
层次分析法
risk assessment
geological disaster
obstacle degree
hot/cold spot analysis
analytic hierarchy process
