摘要
可及性养老资源是衡量养老服务供给效能的关键指标,对于构建现代化公共服务体系具有重要意义。文章聚焦长三角城市群,依托多源数据,采用核密度分析、一致性系数分析及地理探测器等方法,剖析了可及性养老资源和不同生命周期老年人口的空间格局、匹配特征及背后的驱动机制。结果表明:①可及性养老资源呈现“一体两区多核心”格局下的“Z”字型集聚空间分布。同时,“核心城市—区域中心城市—边缘城市”等级分化下的空间非均衡发展结构明显。其中养老机构呈“沿江沿湾”分布,社区老年文娱场所为“多点状”集聚。②老年人口形成以上海为核心的“楔形集聚区”,沿沪宁、沪杭通道形成“一体两翼”格局。细分群体中,不健康但生活可自理与不健康且生活不可自理群体集中于沪宁轴带,健康群体有向郊区扩散趋势,三类群体均呈现“中心—外围”衰减规律但速度各异。③可及性养老资源与老年人口的空间协调性弱,资源与人口的协调程度由中部地区向四周递减。细分类型中,养老机构富足类城市占比较高,社区医疗匹配类占比较低,文娱设施滞后类占比突出。社区老年文娱场所整体匹配度最优,其次为社区医疗卫生场所。省际差异显著,浙江资源聚集程度多高于对应老年人口,安徽、江苏、上海多呈资源滞后特征。长三角南部形成了“富足—匹配”交错带,资源滞后类围绕北部和西部连片分布。④可及性养老资源的空间分异受多种因素共同驱动,地区财政支出、老年人口数和媒体关注度等人文环境因素是影响养老资源布局的主要因素。自然环境因素的影响相对有限,但与人文环境因素交互后,影响作用显著增强。
Accessible elderly care resources serve as a pivotal indicator for assessing the effectiveness of elderly care service provision,holding immense significance for the development of a modern public service system.Focusing on the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration(YRDUA),this study employs multi-source data and analytical methods including kernel density analysis,consistency coefficient analysis,and geographical detector method to examine the spatial patterns,demographic-resource alignment,and driving mechanisms of accessible elderly care resources across different elderly life cycle groups.The results show that:1)Accessible care resources exhibit a"Z-shaped"clustered spatial distribution under a"one-body,two-zones and multi-core"framework,with pronounced hierarchical disparities following a"core city-regional central city-marginal city"structure.The elderly care institutions are distributed"along the river and the bay",and the community elderly recreation places are"multi-point"clusters.2)Elderly populations form a Shanghai-centric"wedge-shaped concentration zone"with a"one-body,two-wings"pattern along the Shanghai-Nanjing and Shanghai-Hangzhou corridors.Among specific subgroups,unhealthy seniors who are self-care capable and those who are self-care incapable are concentrated along the Shanghai-Nanjing axis,while healthy seniors show a trend of suburbanization.All three groups exhibit a"core-periphery"decline pattern,though at varying rates.3)Spatial coordination between care resources and elderly demographics is weak,with resource-population alignment declining from central to peripheral regions.Resource-type analysis shows:cities with abundant elderly care institutions account for a relatively high proportion,cities with well-matched community healthcare places account for a relatively low proportion,and cities with lagging community elderly recreation places have a prominent proportion.Community elderly recreation places demonstrate best overall fit,followed by community healthcare places.Inter-provincial disparities are notable:Zhejiang resources generally surpass elderly population concentrations,while Anhui,Jiangsu,and Shanghai show resource deficits.The southern parts of the YRDUA forms a"surplus-matching"interlaced zone,with resource-deficient areas clustering in northern and western regions.4)Spatial differentiation of accessible care resources stems from multi-factorial drivers.Human environment factors-particularly regional fiscal expenditure,elderly population size,and media attention-are primary determinants.Natural environment impacts are relatively limited but gain significance through interactions with human environment factors.
作者
潘義承
王佃利
PAN Yicheng;WANG Dianli(School of Political Science and Public Administration,Shandong University,Qingdao 266200,Shandong,China;Institute of State Governance,Shandong University,Jinan 250100,Shandong,China)
出处
《经济地理》
北大核心
2025年第7期95-107,共13页
Economic Geography
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(23ZDA095)
山东省社科联人文社会科学课题(2023-ECDZ-025)
山东大学政管学院培新研究生科研基金项目(SDZG2024020208&2024020205)。
关键词
可及性
养老资源
老年人口
社区
空间分布
地区财政支出
长三角城市群
accessibility
elderly care resources
elderly population
community
spatial distribution
regional fiscal expenditure
the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration
