摘要
基于攀枝花市盐边县2006-2014年逐日气象数据和森林火灾信息,分析气象条件与森林火灾发生的相关关系,筛选森林火灾发生的主要气象因子。通过SPSS软件主成分分析法优化森林火险气象等级模型,利用2015-2019年森林火灾数据进行模型检验,以期为当地森林火险预报提供依据,为攀枝花市的生态建设提供服务。结果表明:攀枝花市盐边县森林火灾主要发生在1-6月,其中2-5月为高发月。与盐边县森林火灾发生关联度由高到低的气象因子分别是平均10min风速、平均2min风速、平均气温、最高气温、日照时数、最大风速、日降水量,基于7个主导气象因子构建攀枝花市盐边县森林火险气象等级评估模型,检验结果表明,发生火灾时,新模式预报5级命中率为94.0%,新模式命中率较原模式提升了11.9个百分点,空报率降低了20.2个百分点。从各级火险气象等级预报的正态分布看,新模式更接近当地客观实际,结果精准度高,可为当地森林火险预报提供服务。
Based on daily meteorological data and forest fire information from 2006 to 2014 in Yanbian county of Panzhihua,this paper analyzed the correlation between meteorological conditions and forest fires occurrence,and screend out the main meteorological factors that contributed to forest fires occurrence.By applying the principal component analysis method of SPSS software,a meteorological grade model of forest fire danger was constructed.Forest fire data from 2015 to 2019 were used to test the model,which was expected to provide a basis for local forest fire danger prediction and serve the ecological construction of Panzhihua city.The results showed that forest fires in Yanbian county of Panzhihua city,mainly occured from January to June,with February to May being the months with the highest rate of forest fires.The meteorological factors that had a correlation with the occurrence of forest fires of Yanbian county,in descending order of correlation degree,were the average 10min wind speed,average 2min wind speed,average temperature,maximum temperature,sunshine hours,maximum wind speed and daily precipitation.Using the above 7 meteorological factors to construct a meteorological grade evaluation model for forest fire danger in Yanbian.The inspection found that the new mode had a 94.0%hit rate in predicting level 5 when a fire occurred.The hit rate of the new mode increased by 11.9 percentage points compared with the original mode,and the false alarm rate decreased by 20.2 percentage points.In terms of the normal distribution of meteorological grade predictions of fire risks at all levels,the new model was closer to the local objective reality and the accuracy in the results was higher.It can provide services for local forest fire risk forecasting.
作者
肖微
孙俊
杨雪
李玄
徐金波
何科
XIAO Wei;SUN Jun;YANG Xue;LI Xuan;XU Jin-bo;HE Ke(Panzhihua Meteorological Bureau,Panzhihua 617000,China;Sichuan Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology Centre,Chengdu 610072;Suining Meteorological Bureau,Suinig 629000)
出处
《中国农业气象》
2025年第9期1350-1361,共12页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
攀枝花市气象局项目(攀气科研[2020]2号)
遂宁市青年科技人才托举工程项目(遂科协发[2021]6号)
中国气象局气象干部培训学院重点项目(2025CMATCZDIAN24)。
关键词
森林火险
气象条件
盐边县
火险灾害等级
统计模型
Forest fire danger
Meteorological conditions
Yanbian county
Fire hazard grade
Statistical model
