摘要
逆全球化思潮和新贸易保护主义盛行给我国宏观经济稳定运行带来显著压力,使经济韧性成为重要议题。人工智能具有技术渗透性、创新协同性、空间辐射性等特征,能在有效驱动生产力变革的同时,深刻影响经济系统应对内外部冲击的能力。根据技术创新理论、区域经济韧性理论和新经济地理学理论,构建“技术创新驱动—系统韧性响应—空间溢出传导”理论框架,基于2012—2023年我国30个省份(未含港澳台藏地区)面板数据,实证分析人工智能对区域经济韧性的影响与机制。研究发现,人工智能可以显著提升区域经济韧性,且该结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。产业结构升级、技术扩散、环境规制在人工智能对区域经济韧性的影响中发挥中介效应,人工智能通过推动产业结构升级、加快技术扩散、加强环境规制促进区域经济韧性提升。相比于中东部、产业集聚程度高、政府参与度高的地区,人工智能对经济韧性的赋能作用在西部、产业集聚程度低、政府参与度低的地区更强。人工智能对区域经济韧性的影响具有空间溢出效应,人工智能既能带动本地经济韧性提升,也能带动周边地区经济韧性提升,但该空间溢出效应具有区域异质性:在东部地区不显著,在中部地区显著为正,在西部地区显著为负。为充分发挥人工智能对区域经济韧性的提升作用,应聚焦核心机制强化技术赋能,着力优化人工智能发展环境,充分发挥人工智能对产业结构升级、技术扩散、环境规制的促进作用,助力区域经济韧性提升;调节政府施政力度合理控制政府参与边界,根据市场自主调节能力,动态评估企业技术需求与政策效果,对市场活力充足领域减少直接扶持,对创新薄弱环节精准补位,避免过度干预或扶持力度不足;立足地区差异优化空间布局,东部地区打破行政分割实现互流,中部地区协同调节放大溢出效应,西部地区引进技术强化基础培育发展新动能。
The trend of anti-globalization and the prevalence of new trade protectionism have brought significant pressure to the stable operation of China's macroeconomy,making economic resilience an important issue.Artificial Intelligence(AI)has the characteristics of technology penetration,innovation synergy,and spatial radiation,which can effectively drive productivity changes while profoundly affecting the ability of the economic system to cope with internal and external shocks.Based on the theory of technological innovation,regional economic resilience and new economic geography,the author construct the theoretical framework of"technological innovation-driven,system resilience response,and spatial spillover transmission",and empirically analyze the impact and mechanism of AI on regional economic resilience based on panel data from 30 provinces in China(excluding Hong Kong region,Macao region,Macao region,and Xizang)from 2012 to 2023.It is found that AI can significantly improve regional economic resilience,and this conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness tests.Industrial structure upgrading,technology diffusion,and environmental regulation play a mediating effect on the impact of AI on regional economic resilience,and AI promotes regional economic resilience by promoting industrial structure upgrading,accelerating technology diffusion,and strengthening environmental regulation.Compared with the central and eastern regions,and regions with high industrial agglomeration and high government participation,the empowerment of AI on economic resilience is stronger in the western regions,and regions with low industrial agglomeration and low government participation.The impact of AI on regional economic resilience has a spatial spillover effect,which can not only drive the improvement of local economic resilience but also drive the improvement of economic resilience in surrounding areas,but the spatial spillover effect is regionally heterogeneous:it is not significant in the eastern region,significantly positive in the central region,and significantly negative in the western region.In order to give full play to the role of AI in improving regional economic resilience,first,we should focus on core mechanisms to strengthen technological empowerment,focus on optimizing the development environment of AI,give full play to the role of AI in promoting industrial structure upgrading,technology diffusion,and environmental regulation,and help improve regional economic resilience;second,we should adjust the government's governance efforts,reasonably control the boundaries of government participation,dynamically evaluate the technical needs and policy effects of enterprises according to the market's independent adjustment ability,reduce direct support for areas with sufficient market vitality,and accurately fill in the weak links of innovation to avoid excessive intervention or insufficient support;and third,we should optimize the spatial layout based on regional differences,break the administrative division to achieve mutual flow in the eastern region,coordinate and adjust to amplify the spillover effect in the central region,and introduce technology to strengthen the foundation and cultivate new momentum for development in the western region.
作者
方磊
白静
朝曾
FANG Lei;BAI Jing;CHAO Zeng(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Kashi University,Kashi 844000,Xinjiang,China;Research Center for China Pakistan Economic Corridor,Kashi University,Kashi 844000,Xinjiang,China;School of Business,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China)
出处
《中国流通经济》
北大核心
2025年第9期64-82,共19页
China Business and Market
基金
喀什大学中巴经济走廊研究中心资助项目“中巴经济走廊土地利用碳排放效应研究”(ZBJJZL2023B05)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于非参数方法的激励性规制效率理论及其应用研究”(72271129)
2025年喀什大学研究生科研创新项目“一带一路背景下新疆农产品出口竞争力及其影响因素研究”(KD2025KY037)。
关键词
区域经济韧性
创新扩散
产业结构升级
环境规制
空间溢出效应
regional economic resilience
innovation diffusion
industrial structure upgrading
environmental regulation
spatial spillover effect
