摘要
随着科技和产业变革步伐加快,内含前沿技术的先进设备投资大规模增长,"机器换人"成为许多地区技术改造的主要方式。本文从区域发展不平衡的事实出发,构建了智能物质资本投入和区域生活成本差异下三种技能劳动力需求的分析框架,刻画了工业智能化对新时期中国劳动力就业结构的影响机制。本文从理论和经验两个层面证明:工业智能化将促使先进设备替代初中和高中学历劳动力,并增加对高、低教育程度劳动力的需求,导致中国劳动力就业结构整体上呈现出"两极化"特征。东南沿海地区因过高生活成本挤出小学及以下学历劳动力,工业智能化进一步加剧了先进设备对低教育程度劳动力的替代,就业结构反而呈现出"单极极化"趋势,第三产业的快速发展一定程度上弱化了这一替代效应。在所有地区,劳动力的受教育程度越高,劳动力就业受到生活成本因素的负向影响就越小。本文具有深刻的政策含义:政府应持续加大高等教育投入,并调整高等教育结构,加快发展智能制造学科体系;支持劳动力在岗、转岗培训活动,加快建立与智能化相关的职业技能培训体系;进一步缩小区域发展差距,抑制生活成本过快上升,避免过早出现大规模"机器换人"现象,确保实现稳就业目标。
With the acceleration of technological and industrial revolution, investment in advanced equipment with advanced technology has increased substantially, and then“machine replacement of labors” has become the main mode of technological transformation in many China’s regions. Starting from the fact that China’s regional development is unbalanced, this paper constructs a demand analysis framework of three skilled labor forces under the intellectual material capital input and the difference of regional living cost, to describe the mechanism of the influence of industrial intelligence on the employment structure of China’s labor force in the new period. This paper proves from both theory and experience aspects that industrial intelligence will promote the replacement of junior high school and senior high school graduate labor by advanced equipment, increase the demand for high and low education level labor, which will lead to employment “polarization” in China on the whole. In southeastern coastal areas, the employment structure shows a trend of “unipolar polarization”, with the high cost of living squeezing out primary and lower education level labor, industrial intelligence intensifying the substitution of advanced equipment for this part of the labor force, but the rapid development of tertiary industry weakens the substitution effect to some extent. In all regions, the higher the education level of the labor force, the less the negative impact of the cost of living on the employment of the labor force. The conclusions of this study have profound policy implications: The government should continue to increase the expenditure on higher education, adjust the structure of higher education, and accelerate the development of the subject system of intelligent manufacturing. The government should support the on-the-job and job transfer training activities and improve the vocational skills training system, especially strengthening the training of labor skills matching with intelligence. The government should pay attention to narrowing the regional development gap, restraining the excessive rising of living cost, avoiding the phenomenon of premature large-scale “machine replacement of labors”, and then achieve the goal of stable employment.
作者
孙早
侯玉琳
SUN Zao;HOU Yu-lin(School of Economics and Finance of Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710061, China)
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第5期61-79,共19页
China Industrial Economics
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究项目"不平等对中国长期经济增长影响的研究"(批准号19YJA790077)
关键词
工业智能化
生活成本差异
就业“极化”
“单极极化”
高技能劳动力
industrial intelligence
differences of living cost
employment “polarization”
“unipolar polarization”
high skill labors
